Missed90% autopilot capable by 2015
“A Tesla car next year will probably be 90-percent capable of autopilot. Like, so 90 percent of your miles c…”
“The FSD price will continue to rise as the software gets closer to full self-driving capability with regulatory approval. At that point, the value of FSD is probably somewhere in excess of $100,000.”
— Elon Musk · May 18, 2020 · Elon Musk on X, May 18 2020 ↗
What actually happened
Musk predicted on May 18, 2020 that FSD's price would keep rising toward a value 'in excess of $100,000' as it neared regulatory-approved full self-driving. The one-time FSD price instead peaked at $15,000 in September 2022, then fell to $12,000 (2023) and $8,000 (2024), and Tesla shifted new buyers to a $99/month subscription by February 2026. The price never approached $100,000 and FSD never achieved approved full autonomy. Not a Tesla App — Tesla FSD Cost and Price Increase History ↗
The Progression
May 18, 2020
The promise: “The FSD price will continue to rise as the software gets closer to full self-driving capability with regulatory approval. At that point, the value of FSD is probably somewhere in excess of $100,000.” · Elon Musk on X, May 18 2020 ↗
Dec 31, 2024
Deadline passed. Musk predicted on May 18, 2020 that FSD's price would keep rising toward a value 'in excess of $100,000' as it neared regulatory-approved full self-driving. The one-time FSD price instead peaked at $15,000 in September 2022, then fell to $12,000 (2023) and $8,000 (2024), and Tesla shifted new buyers to a $99/month subscription by February 2026. The price never approached $100,000 and FSD never achieved approved full autonomy. Not a Tesla App — Tesla FSD Cost and Price Increase History ↗
Today · Jun 18, 2026
Status: Missed · 534 days past due. Never happened.
FSD price will keep increasing was promised in October 2019 with the expectation that it would rise as functionality improves. Thousands of Tesla owners who purchased FSD are affected, as price hikes from $12,000 to $15,000 impact affordability and perceived value amid delays. This follows Tesla's pattern of adjusting prices for software features like Full Self-Driving. The increases highlight Tesla's strategy to monetize autonomy advancements, but have sparked debates on value for money given ongoing regulatory and technical challenges.
Receipts
LAST CHECKED 2026-06-17- [TWEET] Elon Musk on X, May 18 2020
- [REPORT] en.wikipedia.org
- [TWEET] Companion tweet: 'Tesla Full Self-Driving option cost rises by ~$1000 worldwide on July 1st.' (verified via Electrek embed)
- [REPORT] Electrek, May 18 2020 (embeds both tweets)
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