Missed
90% autopilot capable by 2015
“A Tesla car next year will probably be 90-percent capable of autopilot. Like, so 90 percent of your miles c…”
“Supervised FSD is vastly safer than human driving. Unsupervised FSD is trending well. Over time, Version 12 (end-to-end neural nets) will far exceed human safety even when unsupervised.”
— Elon Musk · Nov 23, 2023 · Elon Musk on X, Nov 23 2023 ↗
What actually happened
Still disputed. Tesla continues to publish safety-report comparisons critics consider methodologically flawed (highway-skewed Autopilot miles vs all-road averages, self-reported crash data), and independent verification of the 'safer than human' claim does not exist. NHTSA scrutiny of FSD-related crashes continued into 2026. Electrek — Is Elon Musk delusional or lying about Tesla Full Self-Driving? ↗
The Progression
Nov 23, 2023
The promise: “Supervised FSD is vastly safer than human driving. Unsupervised FSD is trending well. Over time, Version 12 (end-to-end neural nets) will far exceed human safety even when unsupervised.” · Elon Musk on X, Nov 23 2023 ↗
Today · Jun 12, 2026
Status: Disputed · no deadline given. Contested — see the evidence.
In a November 2023 X post, Musk asserted that supervised FSD 'is vastly safer than human driving' and that Version 12's end-to-end neural networks would far exceed human safety even unsupervised. The claim rests on Tesla's own safety reports, which critics say compare highway-skewed Autopilot miles against all-road averages using self-reported crash data. Independent verification does not exist, and the claim remains disputed amid continuing NHTSA scrutiny.
Receipts
LAST CHECKED 2026-06-11- [TWEET] Elon Musk on X, Nov 23 2023
- [REPORT] electrek.co
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