Partial90% autopilot capable by 2015
“A Tesla car next year will probably be 90-percent capable of autopilot. Like, so 90 percent of your miles c…”
“Supervised FSD is vastly safer than human driving. Unsupervised FSD is trending well. Over time, Version 12 (end-to-end neural nets) will far exceed human safety even when unsupervised.”
— Elon Musk · Nov 23, 2023 · Elon Musk on X, Nov 23 2023 ↗
See his original post on XLoads Elon's actual tweet, right here.
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What actually happened
Still disputed. Tesla's 2025 Impact Report (its latest official data) claims 0.19 major incidents per million miles with FSD (Supervised) engaged vs 0.46 for Teslas driven manually and 1.51 for the US average (minor incidents: 0.64 vs 1.39 vs 4.50). Taken at face value that is 'safer than human' — but the long-standing methodological critiques still apply and remain unresolved: the data is self-reported by Tesla, FSD miles skew toward easier driving conditions, incident definitions differ from NHTSA's, and no independent audit of the comparison exists. Tesla's own numbers say yes; independent verification still says unproven. Electrek — Is Elon Musk delusional or lying about Tesla Full Self-Driving? ↗
The Progression
Nov 23, 2023
The promise: “Supervised FSD is vastly safer than human driving. Unsupervised FSD is trending well. Over time, Version 12 (end-to-end neural nets) will far exceed human safety even when unsupervised.” · Elon Musk on X, Nov 23 2023 ↗
Today · Jul 16, 2026
Status: Disputed · disputed. Contested — see the evidence.
In a November 2023 X post, Musk asserted that supervised FSD 'is vastly safer than human driving' and that Version 12's end-to-end neural networks would far exceed human safety even unsupervised. The claim rests on Tesla's own safety reports, which critics say compare highway-skewed Autopilot miles against all-road averages using self-reported crash data. Independent verification does not exist, and the claim remains disputed amid continuing NHTSA scrutiny.
Receipts
LAST CHECKED 2026-07-07- [TWEET] Elon Musk on X, Nov 23 2023
- [REPORT] electrek.co
- [SOURCE] Tesla 2025 Impact Report (extended PDF), p.193 — 2025 vehicle-safety table: 0.19 FSD vs 0.46 manual vs 1.51 US avg major incidents/M miles
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