Missed
90% autopilot capable by 2015
“A Tesla car next year will probably be 90-percent capable of autopilot. Like, so 90 percent of your miles c…”
“Version 15, hopefully by the end of this year, but certainly by early next year. That will be a complete overhaul of the software architecture, and will run on AI5.”
— Elon Musk · Apr 22, 2026 · Q1 2026 earnings call quotes (Whats Up Tesla) ↗
The fine print
He committed HW3 owners to upgrades on the same call. 'Certainly by early next year' gives a hard backstop of ~Q1 2027.
The Progression
Apr 22, 2026
The promise: “Version 15, hopefully by the end of this year, but certainly by early next year. That will be a complete overhaul of the software architecture, and will run on AI5.” · Q1 2026 earnings call quotes (Whats Up Tesla) ↗
Today · Jun 12, 2026
Status: Pending · 202 days left. Still waiting.
Musk told investors FSD version 15 will be a ground-up architectural rewrite running on the AI5 chip, due 'hopefully' by end of 2026 and 'certainly' by early 2027. He also said large-scale unsupervised deployment should wait for that rewrite — making v15 the stated gate for the entire robotaxi expansion timeline.
Receipts
LAST CHECKED 2026-06-11- [TRANSCRIPT] Q1 2026 earnings call quotes (Whats Up Tesla)
- [REPORT] Motley Fool — context: large-scale rollout gated on the rewrite
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← Robotaxi operating in a dozen or so states by end of 2026
Optimus V3 production starts late July/August 2026 →
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