PendingOrbital satellites become lowest-cost AI compute
“Satellites with localized AI compute... will be the lowest cost way to generate AI bitstreams in <3 years.”
“Grok 4.20 is coming in ~3 weeks and then Grok 5 in a few months”
— Elon Musk · Dec 9, 2025 · @elonmusk on X ↗
See his original post on XLoads Elon's actual tweet, right here.
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What actually happened
Grok 4.20 slipped from the ~3-week (late-Dec 2025) target to a Feb 17, 2026 beta; Grok 5 remained in training with no release as of mid-2026. Re-graded partial (2026-07-05 audit): Grok 4.20 genuinely shipped — public beta Feb 17, 2026, ~7 weeks past the '~3 weeks' deadline — so 'missed' was factually wrong. Partial rather than delivered-late because the compound promise's second half (Grok 5 'a few months later') never materialized: Q1 slipped, Q2 passed, and as of July 2026 Grok 5 is still in training with no release date. NextBigFuture — Grok 4.20 launch, Feb 2026 ↗
The Progression
Dec 9, 2025
The promise: “Grok 4.20 is coming in ~3 weeks and then Grok 5 in a few months” · @elonmusk on X ↗
Feb 17, 2026
Partial — 48 days late. Grok 4.20 slipped from the ~3-week (late-Dec 2025) target to a Feb 17, 2026 beta; Grok 5 remained in training with no release as of mid-2026. Re-graded partial (2026-07-05 audit): Grok 4.20 genuinely shipped — public beta Feb 17, 2026, ~7 weeks past the '~3 weeks' deadline — so 'missed' was factually wrong. Partial rather than delivered-late because the compound promise's second half (Grok 5 'a few months later') never materialized: Q1 slipped, Q2 passed, and as of July 2026 Grok 5 is still in training with no release date. NextBigFuture — Grok 4.20 launch, Feb 2026 ↗
Today · Jul 16, 2026
Status: Partial · 48 days late. Sort of happened.
Grok 4.20 slipped from the ~3-week (late-Dec 2025) target to a Feb 17, 2026 beta; Grok 5 remained in training with no release as of mid-2026.
Receipts
LAST CHECKED 2026-07-05- [TWEET] @elonmusk on X
More from the feed
Pending
MissedGrok 5 released before end of 2025
“Grok 5 will be out before the end of this year and it will be crushingly good.”
goalposts: 2025 → 2026 · moved 1×
PendingGrok makes a watchable movie by end of 2026
“Grok will make a movie that is at least watchable before the end of next year and really good movies in 2027.”
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