Partial90% autopilot capable by 2015
“A Tesla car next year will probably be 90-percent capable of autopilot. Like, so 90 percent of your miles c…”
“I'm extremely confident that level five - or essentially complete autonomy - will happen and I think will happen very quickly. I remain confident that we will have the basic functionality for level five autonomy complete this year.”
— Elon Musk · Jul 9, 2020 · Elon Musk virtual remarks at WAIC 2020 Shanghai (Shanghai Daily YouTube) 0:26 ↗
▶ WATCH HIM SAY IT @ 0:26 — ELON MUSK VIRTUAL REMARKS AT WAIC 2020 SHANGHAI (SHANGHAI DAILY YOUTUBE)
What actually happened
Musk said on July 9, 2020 he was confident Tesla would complete the basic functionality for Level 5 autonomy in 2020. It did not happen; Tesla never reached Level 5 by end of 2020. In March 2021 a Tesla attorney told California's DMV that Tesla's FSD-capable vehicles 'are not truly self-driving,' and FSD remains supervised Level 2 in 2026. Wikipedia — List of predictions for autonomous Tesla vehicles by Elon Musk ↗
The Progression
Jul 9, 2020
The promise: “I'm extremely confident that level five - or essentially complete autonomy - will happen and I think will happen very quickly. I remain confident that we will have the basic functionality for level five autonomy complete this year.” · Elon Musk virtual remarks at WAIC 2020 Shanghai (Shanghai Daily YouTube) 0:26 ↗
Dec 31, 2020
Deadline passed. Musk said on July 9, 2020 he was confident Tesla would complete the basic functionality for Level 5 autonomy in 2020. It did not happen; Tesla never reached Level 5 by end of 2020. In March 2021 a Tesla attorney told California's DMV that Tesla's FSD-capable vehicles 'are not truly self-driving,' and FSD remains supervised Level 2 in 2026. Wikipedia — List of predictions for autonomous Tesla vehicles by Elon Musk ↗
Today · Jul 16, 2026
Status: Missed · 2,023 days past due. Never happened.
Speaking by video at the 2020 World Artificial Intelligence Conference in Shanghai, Musk said he remained confident Tesla would complete 'the basic functionality for level five autonomy' that year, calling himself extremely confident full autonomy would happen very quickly. Level 5 means a car that drives itself in all conditions with no human attention. The end-of-2020 deadline passed without Level 5 autonomy arriving.
Receipts
LAST CHECKED 2026-07-10- [VIDEO] Elon Musk virtual remarks at WAIC 2020 Shanghai (Shanghai Daily YouTube) @ 0:26
- [REPORT] xyo.fandom.com
- [REPORT] Electrek, July 9 2020
- [REPORT] Teslarati (links full WAIC stream at https://youtu.be/EPEIZAFpvgA?t=7274, ~2:01:14)
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goalposts: 2019 · moved 0×
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