Partial90% autopilot capable by 2015
“A Tesla car next year will probably be 90-percent capable of autopilot. Like, so 90 percent of your miles c…”
“[Robotaxi] functionality still looking good for this year. Regulatory approval is the big unknown.”
— Elon Musk · Apr 12, 2020 · Elon Musk on X, April 12 2020 ↗
See his original post on XLoads Elon's actual tweet, right here.
Show ▾
What actually happened
Musk tweeted on April 12, 2020 that robotaxi functionality was 'still looking good for this year,' with regulatory approval the big unknown. Tesla shipped no robotaxi functionality in 2020. The first geofenced robotaxi pilot launched June 22, 2025 in Austin with an in-car safety monitor — over four years after the targeted year. Re-graded partial (2026-07-05 audit): a real Tesla robotaxi service launched in Austin on June 22, 2025 (safety monitor aboard), went driverless in Jan 2026, and covered the full Austin metro by June 2026. Partial: supervised where autonomous was promised at launch, geofenced to one metro, and ~5 years past 'this year.' TechCrunch — Tesla robotaxi launch, Austin, June 22 2025 ↗
The Progression
Apr 12, 2020
The promise: “[Robotaxi] functionality still looking good for this year. Regulatory approval is the big unknown.” · Elon Musk on X, April 12 2020 ↗
Jun 22, 2025
Partial — 4.5 years late. Musk tweeted on April 12, 2020 that robotaxi functionality was 'still looking good for this year,' with regulatory approval the big unknown. Tesla shipped no robotaxi functionality in 2020. The first geofenced robotaxi pilot launched June 22, 2025 in Austin with an in-car safety monitor — over four years after the targeted year. Re-graded partial (2026-07-05 audit): a real Tesla robotaxi service launched in Austin on June 22, 2025 (safety monitor aboard), went driverless in Jan 2026, and covered the full Austin metro by June 2026. Partial: supervised where autonomous was promised at launch, geofenced to one metro, and ~5 years past 'this year.' TechCrunch — Tesla robotaxi launch, Austin, June 22 2025 ↗
Today · Jul 16, 2026
Status: Partial · 4.5 years late. Sort of happened.
In an April 2020 post, Musk said robotaxi functionality was 'still looking good for this year,' with regulatory approval the big unknown. The claim put driverless-taxi capability on Tesla cars by the end of 2020, with only regulators standing in the way. The year ended without robotaxi functionality, and the prediction was missed.
Receipts
LAST CHECKED 2026-07-05- [TWEET] Elon Musk on X, April 12 2020
- [REPORT] xyo.fandom.com
- [REPORT] Electrek (embeds the tweet)
More from the feed
Partial
PartialLA to NYC autonomous drive by end of 2017
“Our goal is, and I feel pretty good about this goal, that we'll be able to do a demonstration drive of full…”
PartialFSD ‘feature complete’
“While it's going to be tight, it still does appear that we will be at least in limited -- in early access r…”
goalposts: 2019 · moved 0×
/// The Daily Verdict
Know the moment a prediction lands — or doesn't.
One email a day, only when something changes: a new promise, a blown deadline, a goalpost move, or a rare on-time delivery. No spam, instant unsubscribe.
Discussion