MissedHumans on Mars
“I think, if things go according to plan, we should be able to launch people probably in 2024, with arrival …”
goalposts: 2024 → 2025 → 2026 · moved 2×
“I think it's important that we strive to have a self-sustaining city on Mars as soon as possible.”
— Elon Musk · Dec 1, 2020 · Axel Springer Award interview, Berlin, Dec 1 2020 — full recording (YouTube, English captions) 2:08 ↗
▶ WATCH HIM SAY IT @ 2:08 — AXEL SPRINGER AWARD INTERVIEW, BERLIN, DEC 1 2020 — FULL RECORDING (YOUTUBE, ENGLISH CAPTIONS)
The Progression
Dec 1, 2020
The promise: “I think it's important that we strive to have a self-sustaining city on Mars as soon as possible.” · Axel Springer Award interview, Berlin, Dec 1 2020 — full recording (YouTube, English captions) 2:08 ↗
Today · Jul 16, 2026
Status: Pending · 8,934 days left. Still waiting.
Accepting the Axel Springer Award in Berlin in December 2020, Musk said it was important 'that we strive to have a self-sustaining city on Mars as soon as possible.' A self-sustaining city — one that survives without resupply from Earth — is the end goal of SpaceX's Mars program. Tracked against a 2050 deadline, the prediction remains pending.
Receipts
LAST CHECKED 2026-06-11- [VIDEO] Axel Springer Award interview, Berlin, Dec 1 2020 — full recording (YouTube, English captions) @ 2:08
- [REPORT] foxnews.com
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Missed
PendingHumans on Mars 2029 (possibly 2031)
“If those landings go well, then human landings may start as soon as 2029, although 2031 is more likely.”
goalposts: 2028 → 2029 → 2031 · moved 2×
Pending1 million people on Mars
“The minimum threshold for a self-sustaining civilization on Mars would be one million people, and you could…”
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