MissedHumans on Mars
“I think, if things go according to plan, we should be able to launch people probably in 2024, with arrival …”
goalposts: 2024 → 2025 → 2026 · moved 2×
“The minimum threshold for a self-sustaining civilization on Mars would be one million people, and you could only go every two years.”
— as reported (paraphrase) · Sep 27, 2016 · IAC 2016 keynote 'Making Humans a Multiplanetary Species' — Musk speaking (Tesla/SpaceX official YouTube) ↗
The Progression
Sep 27, 2016
The promise: “The minimum threshold for a self-sustaining civilization on Mars would be one million people, and you could only go every two years.” · IAC 2016 keynote 'Making Humans a Multiplanetary Species' — Musk speaking (Tesla/SpaceX official YouTube) ↗
Today · Jul 16, 2026
Status: Pending · 12,587 days left. Still waiting.
In his 'Making Humans a Multiplanetary Species' keynote at the 2016 International Astronautical Congress in Guadalajara, Musk presented SpaceX's stated goal of colonizing Mars with one million people. The target sits at the far end of every other Mars prediction in this tracker. With a deadline of 2060, the claim remains pending.
Receipts
LAST CHECKED 2026-06-18- [SOURCE] IAC 2016 keynote 'Making Humans a Multiplanetary Species' — Musk speaking (Tesla/SpaceX official YouTube)
- [REPORT] en.wikipedia.org
More from the feed
Missed
PendingHumans on Mars 2029 (possibly 2031)
“If those landings go well, then human landings may start as soon as 2029, although 2031 is more likely.”
goalposts: 2028 → 2029 → 2031 · moved 2×
PendingSelf-sustaining Mars city ASAP
“I think it's important that we strive to have a self-sustaining city on Mars as soon as possible.”
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