CancelledUncrewed Mars landing 2018
“Planning to send Dragon to Mars as soon as 2018. Red Dragons will inform overall Mars architecture, details…”
“Once Starship is flying frequently with real payloads next year, then SpaceX will probably deliver >95% of total Earth payload to orbit, despite others, especially China, continuing to grow.”
— Elon Musk · Sep 22, 2025 · @elonmusk on X ↗
See his original post on XLoads Elon's actual tweet, right here.
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The fine print
'Next year' from Sep 2025 = 2026. Measurable by global payload-to-orbit share.
The Progression
Sep 22, 2025
The promise: “Once Starship is flying frequently with real payloads next year, then SpaceX will probably deliver >95% of total Earth payload to orbit, despite others, especially China, continuing to grow.” · @elonmusk on X ↗
Today · Jul 1, 2026
Status: Pending · 183 days left. Still waiting.
On September 22, 2025, Elon Musk predicted SpaceX would deliver over 95% of all Earth payload to orbit in 2026 once Starship was flying frequently.
Receipts
LAST CHECKED 2026-07-01- [TWEET] @elonmusk on X
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