Cancelled
“This variant of the Model Y doesn't start production in the US until the end of next year.”
— Elon Musk · Aug 20, 2025 · @elonmusk on X ↗
See his original post on XLoads Elon's actual tweet, right here.
Show ▾
What actually happened
Musk said on Aug 20, 2025 that this Model Y variant would not start US production until the end of 2026. Tesla beat that: the six-seat Model Y L opened US orders on July 2, 2026 (Launch Series from $61,990) and the first US-built Model Y L rolled off the line at Giga Texas as reported on July 8, 2026, with customer deliveries scheduled to begin in September 2026 — roughly five months ahead of his stated timeline. The Driven ↗
The Progression
Aug 20, 2025
The promise: “This variant of the Model Y doesn't start production in the US until the end of next year.” · @elonmusk on X ↗
Jul 8, 2026
Delivered — on time. Musk said on Aug 20, 2025 that this Model Y variant would not start US production until the end of 2026. Tesla beat that: the six-seat Model Y L opened US orders on July 2, 2026 (Launch Series from $61,990) and the first US-built Model Y L rolled off the line at Giga Texas as reported on July 8, 2026, with customer deliveries scheduled to begin in September 2026 — roughly five months ahead of his stated timeline. The Driven ↗
Today · Jul 16, 2026
Status: Delivered · on time. It happened.
On August 20, 2025, Elon Musk said a new Model Y variant would not begin US production until the end of 2026.
Receipts
LAST CHECKED 2026-07-14- [TWEET] @elonmusk on X
More from the feed
Cancelled
Delivered · LateCybertruck volume production in 2022
“If we get lucky, we'll be able to do a few deliveries toward the end of this year, but I expect volume prod…”
goalposts: 2022 → 2023 → late 2023 · moved 2×
MissedCybertruck 250,000 units/year by 2025
“I think we'll end up with roughly 0.25 million Cybertrucks a year, but we're not -- I don't think we're goi…”
← SpaceX delivers >95% of Earth's payload to orbit in 2026
SpaceX space revenue exceeds NASA's entire budget in 2026 →
/// The Daily Verdict
Know the moment a prediction lands — or doesn't.
One email a day, only when something changes: a new promise, a blown deadline, a goalpost move, or a rare on-time delivery. No spam, instant unsubscribe.
Discussion