CancelledUncrewed Mars landing 2018
“Planning to send Dragon to Mars as soon as 2018. Red Dragons will inform overall Mars architecture, details…”
“I think we'll probably put our first man in space in about three years.”
▶ WATCH HIM SAY IT @ 13:45 — THE WALL STREET JOURNAL (OFFICIAL CHANNEL) — 'ELON MUSK: I'LL PUT A MAN ON MARS IN 10 YEARS', INTERVIEW WITH WSJ'S ALAN MURRAY
What actually happened
SpaceX's first crewed flight came nine years after the prediction, not three. Crew Dragon Demo-2 carried NASA astronauts Bob Behnken and Doug Hurley to the ISS on May 30, 2020 — six years past the promised ~2014 date, after Commercial Crew funding shortfalls, two Falcon 9 failure investigations, and Crew Dragon development setbacks. NASA — Astronauts launch from America in historic test flight of SpaceX Crew Dragon ↗
The Progression
Apr 22, 2011
The promise: “I think we'll probably put our first man in space in about three years.” · The Wall Street Journal (official channel) — 'Elon Musk: I'll Put a Man on Mars in 10 Years', interview with WSJ's Alan Murray 13:45 ↗
May 30, 2020
Delivered · Late — 6.1 years late. SpaceX's first crewed flight came nine years after the prediction, not three. Crew Dragon Demo-2 carried NASA astronauts Bob Behnken and Doug Hurley to the ISS on May 30, 2020 — six years past the promised ~2014 date, after Commercial Crew funding shortfalls, two Falcon 9 failure investigations, and Crew Dragon development setbacks. NASA — Astronauts launch from America in historic test flight of SpaceX Crew Dragon ↗
Today · Jul 16, 2026
Status: Delivered · Late · 6.1 years late. It happened — eventually.
Asked in April 2011 when SpaceX would put its first person in space, Musk answered 'in about three years' — implying roughly 2014. Dragon was then a cargo-only capsule that had flown once. The first crewed SpaceX flight, Demo-2, launched May 30, 2020, ending the post-Shuttle gap in American crewed launch but six years behind Musk's timeline.
Receipts
LAST CHECKED 2026-06-22More from the feed
Cancelled
PartialStarship reaches orbit
“This is going to sound totally nuts, but I think we want to try to reach orbit in less than six months.”
goalposts: 2020 → 2022 · moved 1×
Delivered · LateGlobal Starlink coverage by end of 2021
“Most of Earth by end of year, all by next year, then it's about densifying coverage.”
← Humans on Mars: best case 10 years, worst case 15-20 (2011)
Model S deliveries start no later than July 2012 →
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