MissedHumans on Mars: best case 10 years, worst case 15-20 (2011)
“Well, we're going all the way to Mars, I think — best case 10 years, worst case 15 to 20 years.”
“I think we'll probably put our first man in space in about three years.”
▶ WATCH HIM SAY IT @ 13:45 — THE WALL STREET JOURNAL (OFFICIAL CHANNEL) — 'ELON MUSK: I'LL PUT A MAN ON MARS IN 10 YEARS', INTERVIEW WITH WSJ'S ALAN MURRAY
What actually happened
SpaceX's first crewed flight came nine years after the prediction, not three. Crew Dragon Demo-2 carried NASA astronauts Bob Behnken and Doug Hurley to the ISS on May 30, 2020 — six years past the promised ~2014 date, after Commercial Crew funding shortfalls, two Falcon 9 failure investigations, and Crew Dragon development setbacks. NASA — Astronauts launch from America in historic test flight of SpaceX Crew Dragon ↗
The Progression
Apr 22, 2011
The promise: “I think we'll probably put our first man in space in about three years.” · The Wall Street Journal (official channel) — 'Elon Musk: I'll Put a Man on Mars in 10 Years', interview with WSJ's Alan Murray 13:45 ↗
May 30, 2020
Delivered · Late — 6.1 years late. SpaceX's first crewed flight came nine years after the prediction, not three. Crew Dragon Demo-2 carried NASA astronauts Bob Behnken and Doug Hurley to the ISS on May 30, 2020 — six years past the promised ~2014 date, after Commercial Crew funding shortfalls, two Falcon 9 failure investigations, and Crew Dragon development setbacks. NASA — Astronauts launch from America in historic test flight of SpaceX Crew Dragon ↗
Today · Sep 10, 2026
Status: Delivered · Late · 6.1 years late. It happened — eventually.
Asked in April 2011 when SpaceX would put its first person in space, Musk answered 'in about three years' — implying roughly 2014. Dragon was then a cargo-only capsule that had flown once. The first crewed SpaceX flight, Demo-2, launched May 30, 2020, ending the post-Shuttle gap in American crewed launch but six years behind Musk's timeline.
Receipts
LAST CHECKED 2026-06-22SpaceX’s record
Delivered
9
50% of resolved claims delivered.
Missed
9
Deadline passed, still no-show.
Read next
Same source event
MissedAlso SpaceX, resolves soonest
PendingAlso SpaceX, resolves soonest
PendingSpaceX completes ~10 more Starships in 2026
“roughly 10 more ships and about half that number of boosters this year”
← Humans on Mars: best case 10 years, worst case 15-20 (2011)
Model S deliveries start no later than July 2012 →
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