Pending
Pending
Starship Flight 15 launches a little before Thanksgiving 2026
“So we don't know the exact launch date, but probably about four weeks or so. Four to six weeks is about rig…”
Elon Musk predicted Starship would land humans on the Moon by the end of 2024. The deadline passed and it didn't happen.
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“Probably sooner”
See his original post on XLoads Elon's actual tweet, right here.
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What actually happened
No human has landed on the Moon. Fetched Sep 26 2026: NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman said Sep 23 that Artemis III is ~90 days behind, with the first crewed lunar landing now planned for Artemis IV in 2028 (Artemis III rescope is a 2027 LEO lander-docking rehearsal). Starship HLS has not flown an uncrewed lunar-landing demo. Still missed vs the 2024 'probably sooner' promise. Mashable Sep 23 2026 — Isaacman: Artemis III ~90 days behind; first landing Artemis IV 2028 ↗
The Progression
Aug 15, 2021
Dec 31, 2024
Deadline passed. No human has landed on the Moon. Fetched Sep 26 2026: NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman said Sep 23 that Artemis III is ~90 days behind, with the first crewed lunar landing now planned for Artemis IV in 2028 (Artemis III rescope is a 2027 LEO lander-docking rehearsal). Starship HLS has not flown an uncrewed lunar-landing demo. Still missed vs the 2024 'probably sooner' promise. Mashable Sep 23 2026 — Isaacman: Artemis III ~90 days behind; first landing Artemis IV 2028 ↗
Today · Oct 14, 2026
Status: Missed · 652 days past due. Never happened.
Four months after SpaceX won NASA's $2.9 billion Human Landing System contract, Musk replied 'Probably sooner' to whether Starship would be ready to land humans on the Moon by 2024. Artemis III has since slipped repeatedly — to 2026, then 2028 or beyond — with Starship's orbital refueling milestones a chief cause. No crewed landing had occurred by the 2024 deadline or since.
Receipts
LAST CHECKED 2026-09-26- [TWEET] Elon Musk on Twitter, August 15 2021, replying to the 'Everything Artemis' account asking whether Starship would be ready to land humans on the Moon by 2024 — verified via publish.x.com oEmbed
- [REPORT] Space.com, Aug 2021 — context: question asked and SpaceX's $2.9B NASA HLS award
SpaceX’s record
Delivered
31
38% of resolved claims delivered.
Missed
51
Deadline passed, still no-show.
More Starship and SpaceX rocket predictions
- Starship Flight 15 datePending
- Starship orbital refueling: demo promised by end of 2026Pending
- How many Starships in 2026? Elon says ~10 morePending
- Starship ship catch by the tower: moved 2 times so farPending
- SpaceX demonstrates full Starship reusability in 2026Pending
- Starship reflight: first reused ship by Mar 31, 2027?Pending
- Starships landing on the Moon within about three years (byPending
- Starship daily flights: once a day by Aug 4, 2027?Pending
- Starship landing and reuse: promised 2023, moved 3 timesPending
- When will Starship carry humans? Elon says by end of 2027Pending
- Starship rapid reusability: full reflight by end of 2027?Pending
- Starship reaches a weekly or twice-weekly launch cadence inPending
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