On July 24, 2019, Elon Musk promised Giga Berlin and Giga Texas production by the end of 2021. It happened, but 0.3 years late. Verdict as of October 26, 2026: delivered late. twoweeks.lol tracks 6 Musk claims about Tesla Gigafactories (9 statements): 5 delivered (2 on time), 1 missed or cancelled.
Neither factory started production in 2021. Giga Berlin — delayed by German permitting — delivered its first Model Ys on March 22, 2022, and Giga Texas held its 'Cyber Rodeo' opening with first deliveries on April 7, 2022, roughly a quarter past the promise. CNBC — Musk opens Gigafactory Berlin ↗
In April 2017 Musk said Tesla would name two to four new Gigafactory locations that year. None came. Shanghai was agreed in July 2018 and went faster than promised: work started in January 2019 and the first cars were delivered on December 30, 2019.
Europe took longer. Musk hoped to pick a site by the end of 2018 and announced Berlin on November 12, 2019. In January 2021 he said Giga Berlin and Giga Texas would start production that year. Berlin delivered its first Model Ys on March 22, 2022, and Giga Texas held its opening with first deliveries on April 7, 2022. New factory locations promised for the end of 2022 came in March 2023, with Giga Mexico.
Elon Musk first made this promise on Jul 24, 2019, with a deadline of Dec 31, 2021. He has said it 3 times on the record. None of them moved the date. It happened on Apr 7, 2022, 0.3 years late against the first deadline.
On the January 2021 earnings call Musk said both Giga Berlin and Giga Texas would start production 'later this year'. German environmental permitting pushed Berlin's final approval to March 2022, and Austin's first Model Y deliveries came at the April 7, 2022 Cyber Rodeo — making 2021 a clean miss for both plants, though only by a few months.
| Date said | What he said | Deadline given | Source | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| “I think we'll announce locations for somewhere between two and four gigafactories later this year.” | end of 2017 | TED (April 28, 2017), video… | Missed · 3,221 days past due | |
| “The China plan is sort of maybe something like ... a rough target of start of production in about three years.” | Nov 1, 2020 | Tesla Q3 2017 earnings call… | Delivered · on time | |
| “I should say we are hoping to identify a gigafactory location in Europe before the end of this year.” | end of 2018 | Tesla Q2 2018 Earnings Call… | Missed · 2,856 days past due | |
| “Aiming to finish initial construction this summer, start Model 3 production end of year & reach high volume production next year” | end of 2019 | Elon Musk on Twitter, Jan 7… | Delivered · on time | |
| “until we have European cake factory operational and that's but that that's probably a couple years before it you know probably 2021” | end of 2021 | Tesla Q2 2019 earnings call… | Missed · 1,760 days past due | |
| “In fact, we will announce the location of that Gigafactory before the end of this year.” | end of 2019 | Tesla Q3 2019 earnings call… | Delivered · on time | |
| “We're also building Giga Berlin and Giga Texas, which we expect to start production later this year.” | end of 2021 | Tesla Q4 2020 earnings call… | Delivered · Late · 0.3 years late | |
| “we're aiming to start production in a few months, basically November or December in terms of and hopefully deliver our first cards in December” | end of 2021 | Giga-Berlin Giga-Fest (October… | Missed · 1,760 days past due | |
| “we will uh through 2022 look at new locations and probably be able to announce new locations towards the end of this year I expect” | end of 2022 | Tesla Q4 2021 earnings call… | Delivered · Late · 60 days late |
“I think we'll announce locations for somewhere between two and four gigafactories later this year.”
What happened: Tesla named no new Gigafactory sites in 2017. Its Shanghai agreement came on Jul 10 2018 and Berlin was picked in November 2019. Wikipedia: Gigafactory Shanghai (agreement Jul 2018) ↗
“The China plan is sort of maybe something like ... a rough target of start of production in about three years.”
What happened: Giga Shanghai delivered its first China-built Model 3s on Dec 30 2019, about two years after the call and ahead of the three-year target. Guardian, Dec 30 2019: first China-made Teslas delivered ↗
“I should say we are hoping to identify a gigafactory location in Europe before the end of this year.”
Elon Musk first made this promise on Aug 2, 2018, with a deadline of Dec 31, 2018. He has said it 2 times on the record. 1 of those statements pushed the date later. It happened on Nov 12, 2019, 0.9 years late against the first deadline.
“Aiming to finish initial construction this summer, start Model 3 production end of year & reach high volume production next year”
What happened: All three legs landed. The Giga Shanghai building shell was completed in mid-2019, trial Model 3 production began in October, and the first 15 customer cars were delivered on December 30, 2019 — 357 days after groundbreaking, a record for a car plant in China. High-volume production followed in 2020, with roughly 150,000 vehicles built despite the pandemic. CNBC — Tesla delivers first China-made Model 3 sedans in just under a year (Dec 30, 2019) ↗
“we will uh through 2022 look at new locations and probably be able to announce new locations towards the end of this year I expect”
What happened: Tesla announced no new factory site in 2022. Giga Mexico was announced at Investor Day on March 1, 2023. It happened late: Tesla announced Giga Mexico at Investor Day on March 1 2023. Re-graded delivered-late on 2026-10-18: a missed date becomes delivered-late once it happens. Wikipedia: Gigafactory Mexico (announced March 2023) ↗
Shopping for a Tesla? See is a Tesla worth it, Tesla lease prices and the Tesla referral code.
Delivered · Late
Pending
PendingComment on predictions and back the project. We email you a one-tap sign-in link — no password to remember.
By signing in you agree to keep it civil and lawful. We never sell your email.
Discussion