AI illustration: Close to zero new US COVID cases by end of April 2020
GeneralFuture of Humanity
Missed

Elon Musk's COVID tweet: 'close to zero' cases by April 2020

Did US COVID cases fall to near zero by April 2020, as Musk predicted?

On March 19, 2020, Elon Musk predicted close to zero new US COVID cases by Apr 30, 2020. The deadline passed and it didn't happen. Verdict as of October 26, 2026: missed.

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“Based on current trends, probably close to zero new cases in US too by end of April”
— Elon Musk · Mar 19, 2020 · Elon Musk on Twitter, March 19 2020 (verified verbatim via publish.x.com oEmbed) ↗
See his original post on XLoads Elon's actual tweet, right here.
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What actually happened

The US was reporting roughly 25,000-35,000 new confirmed COVID-19 cases per day at the end of April 2020 — about a million cumulative cases by April 28 — not 'close to zero'. The pandemic went on to kill over a million Americans, making this one of Musk's most cited failed predictions. CDC MMWR — COVID-19 case surveillance, US, Jan-May 2020 (cases still in the tens of thousands per day at end of April) ↗

The Progression

Mar 19, 2020
The promise: “Based on current trends, probably close to zero new cases in US too by end of April” · Elon Musk on Twitter, March 19 2020 (verified verbatim via publish.x.com oEmbed) ↗
Apr 30, 2020
Deadline passed. The US was reporting roughly 25,000-35,000 new confirmed COVID-19 cases per day at the end of April 2020 — about a million cumulative cases by April 28 — not 'close to zero'. The pandemic went on to kill over a million Americans, making this one of Musk's most cited failed predictions. CDC MMWR — COVID-19 case surveillance, US, Jan-May 2020 (cases still in the tens of thousands per day at end of April) ↗
Today · Oct 26, 2026
Status: Missed · 2,370 days past due. Never happened.

The 'probably close to zero new cases in US too by end of April' tweet of March 19, 2020 came two weeks after Musk's 'the coronavirus panic is dumb' post, as US lockdowns were just beginning. Instead of approaching zero, daily new US cases were around 30,000 at the end of April 2020 and the US passed one million cumulative cases that week. It remains the most iconic of Musk's COVID-era predictions.

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LAST CHECKED 2026-08-29

Questions and answers

What exactly did Elon Musk say, and when?

On March 19, 2020, Elon Musk said: “Based on current trends, probably close to zero new cases in US too by end of April” (source). That set the date at Apr 30, 2020.

Did it happen?

No. This prediction did not come true; the deadline of Apr 30, 2020 passed without it. The US was reporting roughly 25,000-35,000 new confirmed COVID-19 cases per day at the end of April 2020 — about a million cumulative cases by April 28 — not 'close to zero'. The pandemic went on to kill over a million Americans, making this one of Musk's… (CDC MMWR — COVID-19 case surveillance, US, Jan-May 2020 (cases still in the tens of thousands per day at end of April))

General’s record

Delivered
1
17% of resolved claims delivered.
Missed
5
Deadline passed, still no-show.
Still open
14
On the clock now. All 20 General claims →

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