AI illustration: Cybertruck 250,000 units/year by 2025
TeslaCars & Energy
Missed

Cybertruck 250,000 units/year by 2025

“I think we'll end up with roughly 0.25 million Cybertrucks a year, but we're not -- I don't think we're going to reach that output rate next year. I think we'll probably reach it sometime in 2025.”
— Elon Musk · Oct 1, 2023 · Tesla Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript (Motley Fool) ↗
What actually happened

Tesla sold only 20,237 Cybertrucks in all of 2025 — down 48% from 38,965 in 2024 — versus the predicted 250,000/year run rate. Q4 2025 registrations were further inflated by ~1,339 trucks bought by Musk's own companies (SpaceX alone took 1,279). CBS News — Tesla Cybertruck sales plunged 48% in 2025 ↗

The Progression

Oct 1, 2023
The promise: “I think we'll end up with roughly 0.25 million Cybertrucks a year, but we're not -- I don't think we're going to reach that output rate next year. I think we'll probably reach it sometime in 2025.” · Tesla Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript (Motley Fool) ↗
Dec 31, 2025
Deadline passed. Tesla sold only 20,237 Cybertrucks in all of 2025 — down 48% from 38,965 in 2024 — versus the predicted 250,000/year run rate. Q4 2025 registrations were further inflated by ~1,339 trucks bought by Musk's own companies (SpaceX alone took 1,279). CBS News — Tesla Cybertruck sales plunged 48% in 2025 ↗
Today · Jul 16, 2026
Status: Missed · 197 days past due. Never happened.

On Tesla's Q3 2023 earnings call, Musk projected the company would reach a Cybertruck production rate of roughly 250,000 units per year sometime in 2025. Actual sales fell short by more than an order of magnitude: Tesla sold 20,237 Cybertrucks in 2025, down 48 percent from 2024, with Q4 registrations padded by about 1,339 trucks purchased by Musk's own companies.

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LAST CHECKED 2026-07-05

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