On January 27, 2021, Elon Musk first promised Cybertruck volume production for 2022, then moved the date 4 times. It happened, but 0.9 years late. Verdict as of November 2, 2026: delivered late. twoweeks.lol tracks 7 Musk claims about the Cybertruck (9 statements): 3 delivered (1 on time), 4 missed or cancelled.
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<p style="font-size:12px">Source: <a href="https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/cybertruck-volume-production/">twoweeks.lol</a> Elon Musk prediction tracker</p>On the Q4 2020 call (Jan 27 2021) Musk said he expected Cybertruck volume production in 2022. No Cybertrucks were produced in 2022; first deliveries came Nov 30 2023, with volume ramping afterward. Cybertruck first deliveries Nov 30 2023 (Electrek) ↗
In June 2019 Musk said Tesla hoped to unveil its pickup that summer. The Cybertruck came out on November 21, 2019, with a promised starting price of $39,900. At the same event the "armor glass" broke on stage.
In January 2021 he expected volume production in 2022. In April 2023 he put the delivery event in Q3. First deliveries came at Giga Texas on November 30, 2023, at a base price of $60,990. Musk had dropped the $39,900 price in August 2022.
Other claims went both ways. The steel body stops handgun rounds, as promised. The "boat" ability he described in 2022 never shipped. In October 2023 he expected about 250,000 Cybertrucks a year by 2025. Tesla sold 20,237 in 2025.
Elon Musk first made this promise on Jan 27, 2021, with a deadline of Dec 31, 2022. He has said it 3 times on the record. 2 of those statements pushed the date later. It happened on Nov 30, 2023, 0.9 years late against the first deadline.
| Date said | What he said | Deadline given | Source | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| “the pickup truck which we hope to unveil hopefully this summer” | Sep 22, 2019 | Tesla 2019 Annual Shareholder… | Delivered · Late · 60 days late | |
| “Starting price of $39,900.” | end of 2021 | Cybertruck Unveil, Nov 21 2019… | Cancelled · shelved | |
| “It is literally bulletproof to a 9 mm handgun, that's how strong the skin is.” | Nov 30, 2023 | Cybertruck Unveil, Nov 21 2019… | Delivered · on time | |
| “We threw wrenches, we threw everything. We even literally threw the kitchen sink at the glass and it didn't break.” | Nov 21, 2019 | Cybertruck Unveil, Nov 21 2019… | Missed · 2,538 days past due | |
| “If we get lucky, we'll be able to do a few deliveries toward the end of this year, but I expect volume production to be in 2022.” | end of 2022 | Tesla Q4 2020 Earnings Call… | Delivered · Late · 0.9 years late | |
| “Cybertruck will be waterproof enough to serve briefly as a boat, so it can cross rivers, lakes & even seas that aren't too choppy” | Nov 30, 2023 | Musk tweet, Sep 29 2022 | Missed · 1,068 days past due | |
| “It's a great product and we're completing the installation of the volume production line at Giga, Texas and we're anticipating having a delivery…” | Sep 30, 2023 | Tesla Q1 2023 Earnings Call… | Missed · 1,129 days past due | |
| “I think we'll end up with roughly 0.25 million Cybertrucks a year, but we're not -- I don't think we're going to reach that output rate next year. I…” | end of 2025 | Tesla Q3 2023 Earnings Call… | Missed · 306 days past due | |
| “We plan to drop first deliveries next month.” | Nov 30, 2023 | The Joe Rogan Experience… | Delivered · on time |
“the pickup truck which we hope to unveil hopefully this summer”
What happened: The Cybertruck was unveiled on November 21, 2019, two months after summer ended. It happened late: the Cybertruck was unveiled on November 21 2019. Re-graded delivered-late on 2026-10-18: a missed date becomes delivered-late once it happens. Wikipedia: Tesla Cybertruck (unveiled Nov 21, 2019) ↗
“Starting price of $39,900.”
What happened: Musk promised a $39,900 starting Cybertruck in 2019. At the Nov 30 2023 launch the base price was $60,990 and the cheapest model later rose to ~$100,000; the $39,900 price was never available. Re-graded cancelled (2026-07-05 audit): Musk publicly renounced the price at the Aug 4, 2022 shareholder meeting ('the specs and pricing will be different... a little bit of bad news'), and the truck launched Nov 2023 from $60,990 with the cheapest trim later discontinued. The $39,900 Cybertruck is an abandoned promise, not a pending one. Carscoops — Musk: Cybertruck pricing 'will be different', Aug 2022 ↗
“It is literally bulletproof to a 9 mm handgun, that's how strong the skin is.”
What happened: Musk claimed the Cybertruck body is bulletproof to a 9mm handgun (Nov 2019). The production truck's stainless steel exoskeleton was shown to stop 9mm handgun, .45 ACP and shotgun rounds; it is bullet-resistant to handguns though not to rifle calibers. Cybertruck bulletproof / 9mm testing (InsideEVs) ↗
“We threw wrenches, we threw everything. We even literally threw the kitchen sink at the glass and it didn't break.”
What happened: During the Nov 21 2019 Cybertruck unveil, the 'armor glass' demo failed when Franz von Holzhausen's steel ball shattered both the driver and rear windows on stage; Musk later said a prior sledgehammer hit had cracked the glass base. Fetched Oct 5 2026: production Cybertruck glass is marketed as shatter-resistant (Class 4 hail / baseball at 70 mph), not the unbreakable armor-glass demo, and is not ballistic-rated — aftermarket Armored CyberGlass exists because stock glass is not. Still missed; the goal was not later delivered. Wikipedia Tesla Cybertruck (fetched Oct 5 2026) — 2019 armor-glass demo failed; stock glass is not unbreakable ↗
“Cybertruck will be waterproof enough to serve briefly as a boat, so it can cross rivers, lakes & even seas that aren't too choppy”
What happened: Still disputed. No 'boat mode' or certified water-crossing capability has ever shipped, and multiple owner reports of water-stranded Cybertrucks stand unrebutted. No new developments found in 2026 reporting. Re-graded missed (2026-07-05 audit): there is nothing genuinely contested here. No boat capability ever shipped — Wade Mode (32-inch depth, brief shallow fording) is explicitly not boat mode, and real-world attempts ended with a Cybertruck stuck in a river (Apr 2025) and one disabled and taking on water in Grapevine Lake (May 2026). A clean miss, not a dispute. Electrek — Cybertruck disabled in Grapevine Lake, May 2026 ↗
“I think we'll end up with roughly 0.25 million Cybertrucks a year, but we're not -- I don't think we're going to reach that output rate next year. I think we'll probably reach it sometime in 2025.”
What happened: Tesla sold only 20,237 Cybertrucks in all of 2025 — down 48% from 38,965 in 2024 — versus the predicted 250,000/year run rate. Q4 2025 registrations were further inflated by ~1,339 trucks bought by Musk's own companies (SpaceX alone took 1,279). CBS News — Tesla Cybertruck sales plunged 48% in 2025 ↗
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