Missed
90% autopilot capable by 2015
“A Tesla car next year will probably be 90-percent capable of autopilot. Like, so 90 percent of your miles c…”
“We do expect to start fully autonomous unsupervised FSD in Texas and California next year. That's with the Model 3 and Model Y.”
— Elon Musk · Oct 10, 2024 · 'We, Robot | Tesla Cybercab Unveil', Oct 10 2024 (official Tesla YouTube channel, verified via YouTube oEmbed) ↗
▶ WATCH HIM SAY IT — 'WE, ROBOT | TESLA CYBERCAB UNVEIL', OCT 10 2024 (OFFICIAL TESLA YOUTUBE CHANNEL, VERIFIED VIA YOUTUBE OEMBED)
What actually happened
No customer-owned Tesla ran unsupervised FSD anywhere in 2025. Consumer FSD remained 'Supervised' all year; even Tesla's own Austin robotaxi fleet kept human safety monitors aboard until January 22, 2026, and Bay Area cars used safety drivers. By May 2026 Musk was re-promising unsupervised FSD would be 'widespread' by end of 2026. Electrek — Musk says unsupervised FSD will be 'widespread' by year-end — again (May 2026) ↗
The Progression
Oct 10, 2024
The promise: “We do expect to start fully autonomous unsupervised FSD in Texas and California next year. That's with the Model 3 and Model Y.” · 'We, Robot | Tesla Cybercab Unveil', Oct 10 2024 (official Tesla YouTube channel, verified via YouTube oEmbed) ↗
Dec 31, 2025
Deadline passed. No customer-owned Tesla ran unsupervised FSD anywhere in 2025. Consumer FSD remained 'Supervised' all year; even Tesla's own Austin robotaxi fleet kept human safety monitors aboard until January 22, 2026, and Bay Area cars used safety drivers. By May 2026 Musk was re-promising unsupervised FSD would be 'widespread' by end of 2026. Electrek — Musk says unsupervised FSD will be 'widespread' by year-end — again (May 2026) ↗
Today · Jun 12, 2026
Status: Missed · on time. Never happened.
At the October 10, 2024 'We, Robot' Cybercab unveil, Musk promised unsupervised FSD — sleep-in-your-car autonomy — for customer Model 3s and Model Ys in Texas and California in 2025. The year ended with consumer FSD still supervised everywhere, and in April 2026 Tesla admitted HW3 cars can't achieve unsupervised FSD at all. The claim now anchors the post-2024 chapter of the FSD timeline saga.
Receipts
LAST CHECKED 2026-06-12- [VIDEO] 'We, Robot | Tesla Cybercab Unveil', Oct 10 2024 (official Tesla YouTube channel, verified via YouTube oEmbed)
- [REPORT] Not a Tesla App — contemporaneous coverage quoting the line
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