Partial90% autopilot capable by 2015
“A Tesla car next year will probably be 90-percent capable of autopilot. Like, so 90 percent of your miles c…”
“We do expect to start fully autonomous unsupervised FSD in Texas and California next year. That's with the Model 3 and Model Y.”
▶ WATCH HIM SAY IT @ 11:50 — 'WE, ROBOT | TESLA CYBERCAB UNVEIL', OCT 10 2024 (OFFICIAL TESLA YOUTUBE CHANNEL, VERIFIED VIA YOUTUBE OEMBED)
What actually happened
The promise — 'fully autonomous unsupervised FSD in Texas and California next year... with the Model 3 and Model Y' — did not happen in 2025: consumer FSD stayed 'Supervised' all year and Tesla's own Austin robotaxi fleet kept safety monitors aboard until January 22, 2026. Its substance has since arrived, but only in part: unsupervised driverless Model Y robotaxis now run with no one aboard in Austin (from Jan 22, 2026) and, as of July 2026, exclusively unsupervised in Dallas, Houston, Miami and Orlando/Tampa, with 380,000 unsupervised miles reported on July 22, 2026. Graded partial, not delivered-late: those are Tesla-owned robotaxis, not the customer-owned Model 3/Y the We, Robot promise was about — unsupervised FSD for privately owned cars is still unreleased and now targeted for Q4 2026 — and California is still not driverless, so only the Texas half landed. Not a Tesla App — Tesla Robotaxi hits 380K unsupervised miles, names next markets (Jul 22 2026) ↗
The Progression
Oct 10, 2024
The promise: “We do expect to start fully autonomous unsupervised FSD in Texas and California next year. That's with the Model 3 and Model Y.” · 'We, Robot | Tesla Cybercab Unveil', Oct 10 2024 (official Tesla YouTube channel, verified via YouTube oEmbed) 11:50 ↗
Jan 22, 2026
Partial — 22 days late. The promise — 'fully autonomous unsupervised FSD in Texas and California next year... with the Model 3 and Model Y' — did not happen in 2025: consumer FSD stayed 'Supervised' all year and Tesla's own Austin robotaxi fleet kept safety monitors aboard until January 22, 2026. Its substance has since arrived, but only in part: unsupervised driverless Model Y robotaxis now run with no one aboard in Austin (from Jan 22, 2026) and, as of July 2026, exclusively unsupervised in Dallas, Houston, Miami and Orlando/Tampa, with 380,000 unsupervised miles reported on July 22, 2026. Graded partial, not delivered-late: those are Tesla-owned robotaxis, not the customer-owned Model 3/Y the We, Robot promise was about — unsupervised FSD for privately owned cars is still unreleased and now targeted for Q4 2026 — and California is still not driverless, so only the Texas half landed. Not a Tesla App — Tesla Robotaxi hits 380K unsupervised miles, names next markets (Jul 22 2026) ↗
Today · Jul 27, 2026
Status: Partial · 22 days late. Sort of happened.
At the October 10, 2024 'We, Robot' Cybercab unveil, Musk promised unsupervised FSD — sleep-in-your-car autonomy — for customer Model 3s and Model Ys in Texas and California in 2025. The year ended with consumer FSD still supervised everywhere, and in April 2026 Tesla admitted HW3 cars can't achieve unsupervised FSD at all. The claim now anchors the post-2024 chapter of the FSD timeline saga.
Receipts
LAST CHECKED 2026-07-24- [VIDEO] 'We, Robot | Tesla Cybercab Unveil', Oct 10 2024 (official Tesla YouTube channel, verified via YouTube oEmbed) @ 11:50
- [REPORT] Not a Tesla App — contemporaneous coverage quoting the line
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