In April 2011 Musk said humans would reach Mars in 10 years at best, 15 to 20 at worst. In June 2016 the plan was to launch people in 2024. At IAC 2017 it was two cargo ships landing on Mars in 2022, and four ships in 2024, two of them crewed. In March 2025 the human landing date was 2029, "although 2031 is more likely."
Uncrewed missions moved the same way. Red Dragon was to fly to Mars as soon as 2018 and was dropped. In September 2024 he said about five uncrewed Starships would launch to Mars in the 2026 window. On February 9, 2026 he put Mars back by five to seven years to focus on the Moon, which cancelled the 2026 attempt.
No Starship has flown to Mars. In January 2026 Musk said humans will reach Mars "in 5 to 10 years." The long-range goal has not changed since 2016: a self-sustaining city of about a million people.
Elon Musk first made this promise on Apr 22, 2011, with a deadline of Apr 22, 2021. He has said it 5 times on the record. 3 of those statements pushed the date later. The latest target is Jan 22, 2036. It has not happened yet.
At the Code Conference in June 2016, Musk said that if things went according to plan, SpaceX should be able to launch people to Mars 'probably in 2024, with arrival in 2025.' The forecast put crewed interplanetary flight less than a decade away. The 2024 window closed with no crewed Mars launch.
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