PendingHumans on Mars 2029 (possibly 2031)
“If those landings go well, then human landings may start as soon as 2029, although 2031 is more likely.”
goalposts: 2028 → 2029 → 2031 · moved 2×
“I think, if things go according to plan, we should be able to launch people probably in 2024, with arrival in 2025.”
— Elon Musk · Jun 2, 2016 · Code Conference 2016 full interview (Recode/On with Kara Swisher YouTube) 22:00 ↗
▶ WATCH HIM SAY IT @ 22:00 — CODE CONFERENCE 2016 FULL INTERVIEW (RECODE/ON WITH KARA SWISHER YOUTUBE)
What actually happened
At the June 2016 Code Conference, Musk said SpaceX could launch people to Mars in 2024 with arrival in 2025. The 2024 deadline passed with no crewed Mars launch; as of 2026 no human has ever traveled to Mars and Starship is still in suborbital flight testing. Spaceflight Now: Musk hopes to send humans to Mars in 2024 (Jun 2 2016) ↗
The Progression
Jun 2, 2016
The promise: “I think, if things go according to plan, we should be able to launch people probably in 2024, with arrival in 2025.” · Code Conference 2016 full interview (Recode/On with Kara Swisher YouTube) 22:00 ↗
2025
Timeline pushed to 2025.
Goalpost #1
Goalpost #1
2026
Timeline pushed to 2026.
Goalpost #2
Goalpost #2
Dec 31, 2024
Deadline passed. At the June 2016 Code Conference, Musk said SpaceX could launch people to Mars in 2024 with arrival in 2025. The 2024 deadline passed with no crewed Mars launch; as of 2026 no human has ever traveled to Mars and Starship is still in suborbital flight testing. Spaceflight Now: Musk hopes to send humans to Mars in 2024 (Jun 2 2016) ↗
Today · Jul 16, 2026
Status: Missed · 562 days past due. Never happened.
At the Code Conference in June 2016, Musk said that if things went according to plan, SpaceX should be able to launch people to Mars 'probably in 2024, with arrival in 2025.' The forecast put crewed interplanetary flight less than a decade away. The 2024 window closed with no crewed Mars launch.
Receipts
LAST CHECKED 2026-06-27- [VIDEO] Code Conference 2016 full interview (Recode/On with Kara Swisher YouTube) @ 22:00
- [REPORT] spaceflightnow.com
- [REPORT] cnbc.com
- [SOURCE] Restated: Axel Springer Award interview, Berlin, Dec 1 2020
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