DeliveredModel S and X production ends next quarter (Q2 2026)
“We expect to wind down S and X production next quarter and basically stop production of Model S and X next …”
“We expect to have fully autonomous vehicles in probably somewhere between a quarter and half of the United States by the end of the year, pending regulatory approval.”
— Elon Musk · Jan 28, 2026 · Tesla Q4 2025 earnings call transcript (Motley Fool) ↗
What actually happened
Fetched Sep 9 2026: Wikipedia Tesla Robotaxi lists unsupervised paid service in six metros (Austin, Dallas, Houston, Miami, Orlando, Tampa) plus a safety-driver Bay Area service; Cybercab paid rides began in Austin Sep 3–4. Phoenix and Las Vegas remain 'announced' / 1H 2026, not live. Six unsupervised metros is a small fraction of US population — not a quarter to half of the United States. Deadline Dec 31 2026. Status stays pending. Wikipedia — Tesla Robotaxi (fetched Sep 9 2026): 6 unsupervised metros + Bay Area with safety driver; not 25–50% of the US ↗
The Progression
Jan 28, 2026
The promise: “We expect to have fully autonomous vehicles in probably somewhere between a quarter and half of the United States by the end of the year, pending regulatory approval.” · Tesla Q4 2025 earnings call transcript (Motley Fool) ↗
Today · Sep 10, 2026
Status: Pending · 112 days left. Still waiting.
A day after the first fully driverless Austin robotaxi rides (January 27, 2026), Musk projected coverage of a quarter to half of the US population by year-end 2026 — a rerun of his unfulfilled 'half the US by end of 2025' claim. Three months later he trimmed the target to 'a dozen or so states,' making this a same-year goalpost move worth tracking on its own.
Receipts
LAST CHECKED 2026-09-09- [SOURCE] Tesla Q4 2025 earnings call transcript (Motley Fool)
- [REPORT] Motley Fool — April walk-back to 'a dozen or so states'
Tesla’s record
Delivered
47
59% of resolved claims delivered.
Missed
32
Deadline passed, still no-show.
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