Missed
90% autopilot capable by 2015
“A Tesla car next year will probably be 90-percent capable of autopilot. Like, so 90 percent of your miles c…”
“We expect to have fully autonomous vehicles in probably somewhere between a quarter and half of the United States by the end of the year, pending regulatory approval.”
— Elon Musk · Jan 28, 2026 · Tesla Q4 2025 earnings call transcript (Motley Fool) ↗
The fine print
Successor to existing entry #14 (half of US by end of 2025). Walked back on 2026-04-22.
The Progression
Jan 28, 2026
The promise: “We expect to have fully autonomous vehicles in probably somewhere between a quarter and half of the United States by the end of the year, pending regulatory approval.” · Tesla Q4 2025 earnings call transcript (Motley Fool) ↗
Today · Jun 12, 2026
Status: Pending · 202 days left. Still waiting.
A day after the first fully driverless Austin robotaxi rides (January 27, 2026), Musk projected coverage of a quarter to half of the US population by year-end 2026 — a rerun of his unfulfilled 'half the US by end of 2025' claim. Three months later he trimmed the target to 'a dozen or so states,' making this a same-year goalpost move worth tracking on its own.
Receipts
LAST CHECKED 2026-06-11- [TRANSCRIPT] Tesla Q4 2025 earnings call transcript (Motley Fool)
- [REPORT] Motley Fool — April walk-back to 'a dozen or so states'
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