Pending
Pending
New Tesla Roadster demo postponed to October 15, 2026
“New Tesla Roadster Unveil 10.01”
goalposts: 2026-10-01 (New Tesla Roadster Unveil 10.01) → 2026-10-15 (postponed by 2 weeks / QT Tesla Oct 15) · moved 1×
Missed
Model S at a 30,000/year run rate by end of 2013 (missed)
Elon Musk promised Model S at a 30,000/year run rate by end of 2013 by the end of 2013. The deadline passed and it didn't happen.
First Tesla? Our referral includes 3 months of FSD (Supervised) for first-time buyers.Get a Tesla →
Get an email when this verdict changes. The Daily Verdict covers every change on the board, this one included, and only goes out on days something happens.
“at the end of next year I think that there's there's a there's a pretty good likelihood that we're we're at least at the 30,000 unit”
— Elon Musk · Jul 25, 2012 · Tesla Q2 2012 earnings call (YouTube upload FNyScCJW4yc), video, ~00:34:54 00:34:54 ↗
▶ WATCH HIM SAY IT @ 00:34:54 — TESLA Q2 2012 EARNINGS CALL (YOUTUBE UPLOAD FNYSCCJW4YC), VIDEO, ~00:34:54
What actually happened
Tesla built 6,587 Model S in Q4 2013, roughly a 26,000/year rate and short of the 30,000/year run rate. Tesla Q4 2013 shareholder letter ↗
The Progression
Jul 25, 2012
The promise: “at the end of next year I think that there's there's a there's a pretty good likelihood that we're we're at least at the 30,000 unit” · Tesla Q2 2012 earnings call (YouTube upload FNyScCJW4yc), video, ~00:34:54 00:34:54 ↗
Dec 31, 2013
Deadline passed. Tesla built 6,587 Model S in Q4 2013, roughly a 26,000/year rate and short of the 30,000/year run rate. Tesla Q4 2013 shareholder letter ↗
Today · Oct 12, 2026
Status: Missed · 4,668 days past due. Never happened.
On Tesla's Q2 2012 earnings call Elon Musk said there was a good likelihood Tesla would be at a production rate of at least 30,000 Model S a year by the end of 2013. Q4 2013 output was about a 26,000/year rate.
Receipts
LAST CHECKED 2026-10-12Tesla’s record
Delivered
84
47% of resolved claims delivered.
Missed
94
Deadline passed, still no-show.
Read next
Also Tesla, resolves soonest
PendingAlso Tesla, resolves soonest
Pending
Pending
Owner cars added to robotaxi network next year (2026)
“I'd say confidently next year. I'm not sure when next year, but confidently next year, people would be able…”
Also Tesla, resolves soonest
Pending
Pending
Optimus high-volume external production 2026
“In 2026, ramping up production quite a bit. And at that point, we'll be providing Optimus robots to outside…”
/// The Daily Verdict
Know the moment a prediction lands — or doesn't.
One email a day, only when something changes: a new promise, a blown deadline, a goalpost move, or a rare on-time delivery. No spam, instant unsubscribe.
Discussion