Pending
Pending
Terafab: AI5 small-batch 2026, volume 2027, a terawatt of compute/year
“We either build the Terafab, or we don't have the chips, and we need the chips, so we build the Terafab.”
Elon Musk promised A pretty difficult recession in 2023 by the end of 2023. The deadline passed and it didn't happen.
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“As I said in the last call, there's going to be bumps along the way, and we'll probably have a pretty difficult recession this year, probably.”
— Elon Musk · Jan 25, 2023 · Tesla Q4 2022 earnings call, 2023-01-25 (transcript) ↗
What actually happened
Musk predicted a pretty difficult recession in 2023. There was none: US real GDP grew 2.5% in 2023. BEA — GDP Q4 and year 2023 ↗
The Progression
Jan 25, 2023
The promise: “As I said in the last call, there's going to be bumps along the way, and we'll probably have a pretty difficult recession this year, probably.” · Tesla Q4 2022 earnings call, 2023-01-25 (transcript) ↗
Dec 31, 2023
Deadline passed. Musk predicted a pretty difficult recession in 2023. There was none: US real GDP grew 2.5% in 2023. BEA — GDP Q4 and year 2023 ↗
Today · Oct 12, 2026
Status: Missed · 1,016 days past due. Never happened.
On Tesla's January 2023 earnings call Elon Musk said there would probably be a pretty difficult recession that year. The US economy grew 2.5% in 2023. Separate from his October 2022 'until spring 2024' guess.
Receipts
LAST CHECKED 2026-10-11- [TRANSCRIPT] Tesla Q4 2022 earnings call, 2023-01-25 (transcript)
General’s record
Delivered
1
20% of resolved claims delivered.
Missed
4
Deadline passed, still no-show.
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