Pending
Pending
Terafab: AI5 small-batch 2026, volume 2027, a terawatt of compute/year
“We either build the Terafab, or we don't have the chips, and we need the chips, so we build the Terafab.”
Elon Musk predicted a recession lasting until spring 2024 by Jun 20, 2024. The deadline passed and it didn't happen.
Starlink via our referral: you get a $100 credit after 2 months subscribed (US, Oct 2026 terms). Order in the tab that opens.Get Starlink →
Get an email when this verdict changes. The Daily Verdict covers every change on the board, this one included, and only goes out on days something happens.
“Just guessing, but probably until spring of ‘24”
— Elon Musk · Oct 21, 2022 · @elonmusk on X, Oct 21 2022 ↗
See his original post on XLoads Elon's actual tweet, right here.
Show ▾
What actually happened
Musk forecast a recession lasting until spring 2024. The NBER business-cycle chronology lists no US recession after April 2020; US real GDP grew through 2023 and 2024. The forecast recession did not happen. NBER US Business Cycle Dating — no recession after 2020 ↗
The Progression
Oct 21, 2022
The promise: “Just guessing, but probably until spring of ‘24” · @elonmusk on X, Oct 21 2022 ↗
Jun 20, 2024
Deadline passed. Musk forecast a recession lasting until spring 2024. The NBER business-cycle chronology lists no US recession after April 2020; US real GDP grew through 2023 and 2024. The forecast recession did not happen. NBER US Business Cycle Dating — no recession after 2020 ↗
Today · Oct 11, 2026
Status: Missed · 843 days past due. Never happened.
In October 2022, asked how long the recession would last, Elon Musk said “probably until spring of ‘24.” The US never entered a recession in that period; the NBER declared no downturn after the 2020 one.
Receipts
LAST CHECKED 2026-10-11- [TWEET] @elonmusk on X, Oct 21 2022
General’s record
Delivered
1
20% of resolved claims delivered.
Missed
4
Deadline passed, still no-show.
Read next
Also General, resolves soonest
PendingAlso General, resolves soonest
Pending
Pending
~15GW of AI compute produced in 2027 cannot be turned on in 2027
“Consensus estimate is that ~15GW of AI compute produced in 2027 cannot be turned on in 2027. This is harder…”
Also General, resolves soonest
Pending
Pending
AI roughly doubles US GDP growth next year to ~4%
“My guess is that AI roughly doubles US GDP growth next year from ~2% to ~4%. Maybe even more.”
← Starlink speed doubles to ~300Mb/s in 2021
First Boring tunnel opens Dec 10, free public rides next day →
/// The Daily Verdict
Know the moment a prediction lands — or doesn't.
One email a day, only when something changes: a new promise, a blown deadline, a goalpost move, or a rare on-time delivery. No spam, instant unsubscribe.
Discussion