Missed
Missed
Well over a dozen Falcon 9 launches in 2016
“We have quite a big flight manifest and we should be doing well over a dozen flights next year.”
Elon Musk promised SpaceX reflies a landed Falcon 9 booster in 2016 by the end of 2016. The deadline passed and it didn't happen.
Starlink via our referral: you get a $100 credit after 2 months subscribed (US, Oct 2026 terms). Order in the tab that opens.Get Starlink →
Get an email when this verdict changes. The Daily Verdict covers every change on the board, this one included, and only goes out on days something happens.
“So I think we'll end up re flying one of the subsequent boosters. ... I think probably before sometime next year we would aim to refly one of the [rockets].”
— Elon Musk · Dec 21, 2015 · Post-Landing Telecon — First Falcon 9 Landing (December 21, 2015), video, ~00:07:13 00:07:13 ↗
▶ WATCH HIM SAY IT @ 00:07:13 — POST-LANDING TELECON — FIRST FALCON 9 LANDING (DECEMBER 21, 2015), VIDEO, ~00:07:13
What actually happened
The first reflight of a landed Falcon 9 booster was SES-10 on Mar 30 2017. Wikipedia: SES-10 (first booster reflight, Mar 30 2017) ↗
The Progression
Dec 21, 2015
The promise: “So I think we'll end up re flying one of the subsequent boosters. ... I think probably before sometime next year we would aim to refly one of the [rockets].” · Post-Landing Telecon — First Falcon 9 Landing (December 21, 2015), video, ~00:07:13 00:07:13 ↗
Dec 31, 2016
Deadline passed. The first reflight of a landed Falcon 9 booster was SES-10 on Mar 30 2017. Wikipedia: SES-10 (first booster reflight, Mar 30 2017) ↗
Today · Oct 12, 2026
Status: Missed · 3,572 days past due. Never happened.
On the call after the first Falcon 9 landing in December 2015, Elon Musk said SpaceX would aim to refly one of its landed boosters sometime in 2016. The first reflight came in March 2017.
Receipts
LAST CHECKED 2026-10-12- [VIDEO] Post-Landing Telecon — First Falcon 9 Landing (December 21, 2015), video, ~00:07:13 @ 00:07:13
- [TRANSCRIPT] Post-Landing Telecon — First Falcon 9 Landing, December 21, 2015 — Elon Musk Archive transcript @ 00:07:13
SpaceX’s record
Delivered
31
38% of resolved claims delivered.
Missed
50
Deadline passed, still no-show.
Read next
Same source event
MissedAlso SpaceX, resolves soonest
Overdue
Overdue
SpaceX AI revenue tops all its other revenue in September 2026
“The wild thing is that probably our AI revenue, not probably, definitely our AI revenue will exceed all oth…”
Also SpaceX, resolves soonest
Pending
Pending
Starship Flight 15 launches a little before Thanksgiving 2026
“So we don't know the exact launch date, but probably about four weeks or so. Four to six weeks is about rig…”
← Sleep in your car and wake at your destination in 5-6 years (2014)
Well over a dozen Falcon 9 launches in 2016 →
/// The Daily Verdict
Know the moment a prediction lands — or doesn't.
One email a day, only when something changes: a new promise, a blown deadline, a goalpost move, or a rare on-time delivery. No spam, instant unsubscribe.
Discussion