Missed
Missed
Starship pad turnaround under 24 hours by end of 2024
“We achieved a three day pad turnaround and I think we're aiming to hopefully, I think, get under 24 hours p…”
Elon Musk promised Starlink Mini launches later in 2024 by the end of 2024. It happened on time.
Starlink via our referral: you get a $100 credit after 2 months subscribed (US, Oct 2026 terms). Order in the tab that opens.Get Starlink →
Get an email when this verdict changes. The Daily Verdict covers every change on the board, this one included, and only goes out on days something happens.
“And we'll be introducing the Starlink mini later this year which can fit in a backpack.”
— Elon Musk · Mar 18, 2024 · SpaceX Starship Update at Starbase (March 18, 2024), video, ~00:34:51 00:34:51 ↗
▶ WATCH HIM SAY IT @ 00:34:51 — SPACEX STARSHIP UPDATE AT STARBASE (MARCH 18, 2024), VIDEO, ~00:34:51
What actually happened
Starlink Mini went on sale in June 2024, first in Latin America, then in the US. Wikipedia: Starlink (Mini launched June 2024) ↗
The Progression
Mar 18, 2024
The promise: “And we'll be introducing the Starlink mini later this year which can fit in a backpack.” · SpaceX Starship Update at Starbase (March 18, 2024), video, ~00:34:51 00:34:51 ↗
Jun 18, 2024
Delivered — on time. Starlink Mini went on sale in June 2024, first in Latin America, then in the US. Wikipedia: Starlink (Mini launched June 2024) ↗
Today · Oct 12, 2026
Status: Delivered · on time. It happened.
At the March 2024 Starbase update Elon Musk said SpaceX would introduce Starlink Mini, a dish that fits in a backpack, later that year. It shipped in June 2024.
Receipts
LAST CHECKED 2026-10-12- [VIDEO] SpaceX Starship Update at Starbase (March 18, 2024), video, ~00:34:51 @ 00:34:51
- [TRANSCRIPT] SpaceX Starship Update at Starbase, March 18, 2024 — Elon Musk Archive transcript @ 00:34:51
SpaceX’s record
Delivered
31
38% of resolved claims delivered.
Missed
50
Deadline passed, still no-show.
More Starlink predictions
- Starlink V3: 20kW satellites at scale by end of 2026?Pending
- About 1,000 Starlink V3 satellites in orbit around Q2 2027Pending
- Starlink phone: Elon says compatible phones by Sep 30, 2027Pending
- American Airlines Starlink: Elon says by end of 2027Pending
- Starlink satellites: 5x everyone else's by end of 2031?Pending
- Starlink V3 launch date: delivered Sep 28 2026Delivered
- Starlink direct to cell: promised in 2023, delivered lateDelivered · Late
- Starlink global coverage: promised 2021, delivered lateDelivered · Late
- How fast is Starlink? Elon's 300Mb/s for 2021, missedMissed
Read next
Same source event
MissedSame source event
Missed
Falcon flies as many as ~150 times in 2024
“we're aiming for maybe as much as 150 flights this year”
Also SpaceX, resolves soonest
Overdue
Overdue
SpaceX AI revenue tops all its other revenue in September 2026
“The wild thing is that probably our AI revenue, not probably, definitely our AI revenue will exceed all oth…”
← First Neuralink human implant later in 2023
Starship pad turnaround under 24 hours by end of 2024 →
/// The Daily Verdict
Know the moment a prediction lands — or doesn't.
One email a day, only when something changes: a new promise, a blown deadline, a goalpost move, or a rare on-time delivery. No spam, instant unsubscribe.
Discussion