Delivered
Delivered
Starlink Mini launches later in 2024
“And we'll be introducing the Starlink mini later this year which can fit in a backpack.”
Missed
Falcon flies as many as ~150 times in 2024 (missed)
Elon Musk promised Falcon flies as many as ~150 times in 2024 by the end of 2024. The deadline passed and it didn't happen.
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“we're aiming for maybe as much as 150 flights this year”
— Elon Musk · Mar 18, 2024 · SpaceX Starship Update at Starbase (March 18, 2024), video, ~00:00:12 00:00:12 ↗
▶ WATCH HIM SAY IT @ 00:00:12 — SPACEX STARSHIP UPDATE AT STARBASE (MARCH 18, 2024), VIDEO, ~00:00:12
What actually happened
SpaceX flew 134 Falcon missions in 2024 (132 Falcon 9, 2 Falcon Heavy), a record but short of ~150. It passed 150 in 2025 (#339). Wikipedia: Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy launches 2020–2024 ↗
The Progression
Mar 18, 2024
The promise: “we're aiming for maybe as much as 150 flights this year” · SpaceX Starship Update at Starbase (March 18, 2024), video, ~00:00:12 00:00:12 ↗
Dec 31, 2024
Deadline passed. SpaceX flew 134 Falcon missions in 2024 (132 Falcon 9, 2 Falcon Heavy), a record but short of ~150. It passed 150 in 2025 (#339). Wikipedia: Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy launches 2020–2024 ↗
Today · Oct 12, 2026
Status: Missed · 650 days past due. Never happened.
At the March 2024 Starbase update Elon Musk said SpaceX was aiming for as many as 150 Falcon flights that year. It flew 134.
Receipts
LAST CHECKED 2026-10-12- [VIDEO] SpaceX Starship Update at Starbase (March 18, 2024), video, ~00:00:12 @ 00:00:12
- [TRANSCRIPT] SpaceX Starship Update at Starbase (March 18, 2024) — Elon Musk Archive transcript @ 00:00:12
SpaceX’s record
Delivered
31
38% of resolved claims delivered.
Missed
50
Deadline passed, still no-show.
More Starship and SpaceX rocket predictions
- Starship Flight 15 datePending
- Starship orbital refueling: demo promised by end of 2026Pending
- How many Starships in 2026? Elon says ~10 morePending
- Starship ship catch by the tower: moved 2 times so farPending
- SpaceX demonstrates full Starship reusability in 2026 (stillPending
- Starship reflight: first reused ship by Mar 31, 2027?Pending
- Starships landing on the Moon within about three years (byPending
- Starship daily flights: once a day by Aug 4, 2027?Pending
- Starship landing and reuse: promised 2023, moved 3 timesPending
- When will Starship carry humans? Elon says by end of 2027Pending
- Starship rapid reusability: full reflight by end of 2027?Pending
- Starship reaches a weekly or twice-weekly launch cadence inPending
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