Pending
Pending
Grok makes a watchable movie by end of 2026
“Grok will make a movie that is at least watchable before the end of next year and really good movies in 2027.”
Elon Musk predicted AGI by 2029 by the end of 2029. It hasn't happened yet, with 1,177 days left.
Starlink via our referral: you get a $100 credit after 2 months subscribed (US, Oct 2026 terms). Order in the tab that opens.Get Starlink →
Get an email when this verdict changes. The Daily Verdict covers every change on the board, this one included, and only goes out on days something happens.
“2029 feels like a pivotal year. I’d be surprised if we don’t have AGI by then. Hopefully, people on Mars too.”
— Elon Musk · May 30, 2022 · @elonmusk on X, May 30 2022 ↗
See his original post on XLoads Elon's actual tweet, right here.
Show ▾
What actually happened
Musk (May 2022) said he'd be surprised if AGI isn't here by 2029. No agreed definition of AGI has been met as of Oct 2026; deadline Dec 31 2029. Pending. @elonmusk on X, May 30 2022 ↗
The Progression
May 30, 2022
The promise: “2029 feels like a pivotal year. I’d be surprised if we don’t have AGI by then. Hopefully, people on Mars too.” · @elonmusk on X, May 30 2022 ↗
Today · Oct 11, 2026
Status: Pending · 1,177 days left. Still waiting.
In May 2022 Elon Musk said 2029 felt like a pivotal year and he would be surprised if the world didn’t have AGI by then. He has since given earlier AGI dates, including 2025 and 2026.
Receipts
LAST CHECKED 2026-10-11- [TWEET] @elonmusk on X, May 30 2022
xAI’s record
Delivered
11
61% of resolved claims delivered.
Missed
7
Deadline passed, still no-show.
More AI and future-of-work predictions
- AI-generated game: Elon promises a great one by end of 2026Pending
- When will AGI be achieved? Elon says by end of 2026Pending
- Superhuman AI: Elon says any digital work by end of 2027Pending
- Elon Musk AI coding prediction: Stockfish-level codingPending
- Is AI smarter than humans? Elon: every field by end of 2028Pending
- Elon Musk AI future: smarter than all humans by end of 2030?Pending
- Will AI be smarter than humans combined? Elon says ~5 yearsPending
- Singularity: Elon Musk says it's 10 years awayPending
- Will money be irrelevant? Elon Musk says by end of 2036Pending
- Elon Musk: work will be optional within 20 years — trackedPending
- When will AI be smarter than humans? Elon said 2025Missed
Read next
Also xAI, resolves soonest
PendingAlso xAI, resolves soonest
Pending
Pending
Great AI-generated game released by end of 2026
“The XAI game studio will release a great AI-generated game before the end of next year”
Also xAI, resolves soonest
Pending/// The Daily Verdict
Know the moment a prediction lands — or doesn't.
One email a day, only when something changes: a new promise, a blown deadline, a goalpost move, or a rare on-time delivery. No spam, instant unsubscribe.
Discussion