AI illustration: Crew Dragon flying in 2017 (Code 2016)
Missed

Crew Dragon flying in 2017 (Code 2016) (missed)

Elon Musk promised Crew Dragon flying in 2017 (Code 2016) by the end of 2017. The deadline passed and it didn't happen.

Get an email when this verdict changes. The Daily Verdict covers every change on the board, this one included, and only goes out on days something happens.
“And then, and then next year we'll be flying Dragon version two, which is the one that's capable of taking up to seven astronauts to the space station.”
Video: Code Conference (June 1, 2016), video, ~00:16:57
▶ WATCH HIM SAY IT @ 00:16:57 — CODE CONFERENCE (JUNE 1, 2016), VIDEO, ~00:16:57
What actually happened

Crew Dragon's first flight, the uncrewed Demo-1, launched on Mar 2 2019. The first crewed flight came in May 2020. Wikipedia: Crew Dragon Demo-1 (Mar 2 2019) ↗

The Progression

Jun 1, 2016
The promise: “And then, and then next year we'll be flying Dragon version two, which is the one that's capable of taking up to seven astronauts to the space station.” · Code Conference (June 1, 2016), video, ~00:16:57 00:16:57 ↗
Dec 31, 2017
Deadline passed. Crew Dragon's first flight, the uncrewed Demo-1, launched on Mar 2 2019. The first crewed flight came in May 2020. Wikipedia: Crew Dragon Demo-1 (Mar 2 2019) ↗
Today · Oct 12, 2026
Status: Missed · 3,207 days past due. Never happened.

At Code 2016 Elon Musk said SpaceX would fly Dragon version two, the seven-astronaut capsule, the next year. It first flew in March 2019.

Win the argument. Share the receipt.
The post comes pre-loaded with his quote, the clock, and the share card — one tap and it's settled.

Receipts

LAST CHECKED 2026-10-12

SpaceX’s record

Delivered
31
38% of resolved claims delivered.
Missed
50
Deadline passed, still no-show.
Still open
43
On the clock now. All 124 SpaceX claims →

Read next

Same source event
Also SpaceX, resolves soonest
Also SpaceX, resolves soonest

Discussion

Loading…
← Falcon Heavy launches by end of 2016 (Code 2016) Tesla announces 2-4 new Gigafactory locations later in 2017 →
/// The Daily Verdict
Know the moment a prediction lands — or doesn't.
One email a day, only when something changes: a new promise, a blown deadline, a goalpost move, or a rare on-time delivery. No spam, instant unsubscribe.