Missed
Missed
Crew Dragon flying in 2017 (Code 2016)
“And then, and then next year we'll be flying Dragon version two, which is the one that's capable of taking …”
Elon Musk promised Falcon Heavy launches by end of 2016 (Code 2016) by the end of 2016. The deadline passed and it didn't happen.
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“So we want to start re flying them towards the end of summer and then hopefully by the end of this year we'll be launching Falcon Heavy, which will be the most powerful rocket in the world by more than a factor of two.”
— Elon Musk · Jun 1, 2016 · Code Conference (June 1, 2016), video, ~00:14:19 00:14:19 ↗
▶ WATCH HIM SAY IT @ 00:14:19 — CODE CONFERENCE (JUNE 1, 2016), VIDEO, ~00:14:19
What actually happened
Falcon Heavy first flew on Feb 6 2018, carrying Musk's Roadster, more than a year after the end-2016 target. Wikipedia: Falcon Heavy test flight (Feb 6 2018) ↗
The Progression
Jun 1, 2016
The promise: “So we want to start re flying them towards the end of summer and then hopefully by the end of this year we'll be launching Falcon Heavy, which will be the most powerful rocket in the world by more than a factor of two.” · Code Conference (June 1, 2016), video, ~00:14:19 00:14:19 ↗
Dec 31, 2016
Deadline passed. Falcon Heavy first flew on Feb 6 2018, carrying Musk's Roadster, more than a year after the end-2016 target. Wikipedia: Falcon Heavy test flight (Feb 6 2018) ↗
Today · Oct 12, 2026
Status: Missed · 3,572 days past due. Never happened.
At the 2016 Code Conference Elon Musk said SpaceX would hopefully launch Falcon Heavy by the end of the year. It flew in February 2018.
Receipts
LAST CHECKED 2026-10-12- [VIDEO] Code Conference (June 1, 2016), video, ~00:14:19 @ 00:14:19
- [TRANSCRIPT] Code Conference, June 1, 2016 — Elon Musk Archive transcript @ 00:14:19
SpaceX’s record
Delivered
31
38% of resolved claims delivered.
Missed
50
Deadline passed, still no-show.
More Starship and SpaceX rocket predictions
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- Starship daily flights: once a day by Aug 4, 2027?Pending
- Starship landing and reuse: promised 2023, moved 3 timesPending
- When will Starship carry humans? Elon says by end of 2027Pending
- Starship rapid reusability: full reflight by end of 2027?Pending
- Starship reaches a weekly or twice-weekly launch cadence inPending
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