Missed

Dragon starts flying people by the end of 2016 (missed)

Elon Musk promised Dragon starts flying people by the end of 2016 by the end of 2016. The deadline passed and it didn't happen.

Starlink via our referral: you get a $100 credit after 2 months subscribed (US, Oct 2026 terms). Order in the tab that opens.Get Starlink →
Get an email when this verdict changes. The Daily Verdict covers every change on the board, this one included, and only goes out on days something happens.
“As for people, it’s quite likely by the end of 2016 we will start [flying them]”
— Elon Musk · Jul 28, 2014 · Elon Musk Tells Me His Secret Of Success (Forbes, Jim Clash, Jul 28 2014) ↗
What actually happened

Crew Dragon first carried people on the Demo-2 mission on May 30, 2020, about three and a half years after the end of 2016. NASA: Demo-2 launch, May 30, 2020 ↗

The Progression

Jul 28, 2014
The promise: “As for people, it’s quite likely by the end of 2016 we will start [flying them]” · Elon Musk Tells Me His Secret Of Success (Forbes, Jim Clash, Jul 28 2014) ↗
Dec 31, 2016
Deadline passed. Crew Dragon first carried people on the Demo-2 mission on May 30, 2020, about three and a half years after the end of 2016. NASA: Demo-2 launch, May 30, 2020 ↗
Today · Oct 12, 2026
Status: Missed · 3,572 days past due. Never happened.

In a July 2014 Forbes interview Elon Musk said Dragon would quite likely start flying people by the end of 2016. The first crewed flight was in May 2020.

Win the argument. Share the receipt.
The post comes pre-loaded with his quote, the clock, and the share card — one tap and it's settled.
Post the receipt

Receipts

LAST CHECKED 2026-10-12

SpaceX’s record

Delivered
31
38% of resolved claims delivered.
Missed
50
Deadline passed, still no-show.
Still open
43
On the clock now. All 124 SpaceX claims →

Read next

Also SpaceX, resolves soonest
Also SpaceX, resolves soonest
Also SpaceX, resolves soonest

Discussion

Loading…
← Falcon 1 reaches orbit within one to three more tries (after the third failure)
/// The Daily Verdict
Know the moment a prediction lands — or doesn't.
One email a day, only when something changes: a new promise, a blown deadline, a goalpost move, or a rare on-time delivery. No spam, instant unsubscribe.