Overdue
Overdue
SpaceX AI revenue tops all its other revenue in September 2026
“The wild thing is that probably our AI revenue, not probably, definitely our AI revenue will exceed all oth…”
Delivered
Falcon 1 reaches orbit within one to three more tries (after
Elon Musk promised Falcon 1 reaches orbit within one to three more tries (after the third failure) by the end of 2009. It happened on time.
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“It might take us one, two or three more tries, but we will”
— Elon Musk · Aug 5, 2008 · Now 0-for-3, SpaceX's Elon Musk Vows to Make Orbit (Wired, Aug 5 2008) ↗
What actually happened
On the very next attempt, Flight 4 on September 28, 2008, Falcon 1 became the first privately developed liquid-fueled rocket to reach Earth orbit. Wikipedia: Falcon 1 Flight 4 (orbit, Sep 28, 2008) ↗
The Progression
Aug 5, 2008
The promise: “It might take us one, two or three more tries, but we will” · Now 0-for-3, SpaceX's Elon Musk Vows to Make Orbit (Wired, Aug 5 2008) ↗
Sep 28, 2008
Delivered — on time. On the very next attempt, Flight 4 on September 28, 2008, Falcon 1 became the first privately developed liquid-fueled rocket to reach Earth orbit. Wikipedia: Falcon 1 Flight 4 (orbit, Sep 28, 2008) ↗
Today · Oct 12, 2026
Status: Delivered · on time. It happened.
Days after Falcon 1's third failure in August 2008, Elon Musk told Wired that SpaceX might need one, two or three more tries to reach orbit. It got there on the next one.
Receipts
LAST CHECKED 2026-10-12SpaceX’s record
Delivered
31
38% of resolved claims delivered.
Missed
50
Deadline passed, still no-show.
More Starship and SpaceX rocket predictions
- Starship Flight 15 datePending
- Starship orbital refueling: demo promised by end of 2026Pending
- How many Starships in 2026? Elon says ~10 morePending
- Starship ship catch by the tower: moved 2 times so farPending
- SpaceX demonstrates full Starship reusability in 2026 (stillPending
- Starship reflight: first reused ship by Mar 31, 2027?Pending
- Starships landing on the Moon within about three years (byPending
- Starship daily flights: once a day by Aug 4, 2027?Pending
- Starship landing and reuse: promised 2023, moved 3 timesPending
- When will Starship carry humans? Elon says by end of 2027Pending
- Starship rapid reusability: full reflight by end of 2027?Pending
- Starship reaches a weekly or twice-weekly launch cadence inPending
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Also SpaceX, resolves soonest
OverdueAlso SpaceX, resolves soonest
Pending
Pending
Starship Flight 15 launches a little before Thanksgiving 2026
“So we don't know the exact launch date, but probably about four weeks or so. Four to six weeks is about rig…”
Also SpaceX, resolves soonest
Pending
Pending
SpaceX Fable/GPT-6-level model in 2–3 months
“I am cautiously optimistic that SpaceX will have a Fable/GPT-6 level model in 2 to 3 months”
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