Elon Musk has given 3 different target dates for Grok 5 since 2025: 2 passed without it happening. The latest, given on August 4, 2026, is the end of 2026 (as of November 1, 2026).
On August 7, 2025, Elon Musk first promised Grok 5 for 2025, then moved the date 3 times; the current target is 2026. It hasn't happened yet, with 60 days left. Verdict as of November 1, 2026: still pending. twoweeks.lol tracks 31 Musk claims about Grok and xAI (36 statements): 13 delivered (3 on time), 5 missed or cancelled, 13 still pending.
<iframe src="https://twoweeks.lol/embed/goalposts/grok-5-release/" width="100%" height="230" style="border:0;max-width:720px" title="Grok 5 released before end of 2025: every deadline Elon Musk gave" loading="lazy"></iframe>
<p style="font-size:12px">Source: <a href="https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/grok-5-release/">twoweeks.lol</a> Elon Musk prediction tracker</p>Fetched Oct 26 2026: docs.x.ai still lists Grok 4.7 as the most capable text model ('For everything else, including code, use Grok 4.7'). x.ai/news newest model post is Introducing Grok 4.7 (Sep 21); Grok Voice 3.0 (Oct 14) is speech, not Grok 5. No grok-5 identifier. Deadline end-2026. Status stays pending. xAI models docs (fetched Oct 26 2026) — flagship is still Grok 4.7; no Grok 5 ↗
Most Grok release dates have missed by days or weeks. Grok 1.5 was due in February 2024 and came on March 28. Grok 2 hit its August 2024 date. Grok 3 was due by the end of 2024 and shipped on February 17, 2025. A Grok 3.5 beta promised for May 2025 never shipped. In 2026, Grok 4.5 came out on the day he named, Grok 4.6 one day late and Grok 4.7 five days late. Grok 4.8 was due to finish training by September 20, 2026, and there is no public sign that it has.
Grok 5 has moved the most. In August 2025 Musk said it would be out before the end of that year. In January 2026 he said Q1 2026. In August 2026 he said before the end of 2026. As of October 2026 the newest xAI text model is Grok 4.7.
Other xAI promises due by the end of 2026: a watchable Grok-made movie, a great AI-generated game, Grokipedia far bigger than Wikipedia, open weights for the 0.5T model, and xAI catching up with the AI leaders.
For computing power, Musk said in September 2026 that another 220,000 GB300 chips would be running at Colossus in Memphis "next week". There was no public sign of it by that deadline. On October 31, 2026 he said the next building there, Gun Range, is on track to be running by the end of November, with a second one, Spam, in December. He also said Colossus 2 would have around 1.2 million Nvidia Blackwell chips in total by the end of 2026.
Elon Musk first made this promise on Aug 7, 2025, with a deadline of Dec 31, 2025. He has said it 3 times on the record. 2 of those statements pushed the date later. The latest target is Dec 31, 2026. It has not happened yet.
| Date said | What he said | Deadline given | Source | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| “Yeah. Grok should be available to all X Premium+ subscribers next week.” | Dec 2, 2023 | @elonmusk, 2023-11-21 | Delivered · Late · 6 days late | |
| “Yes, Grok 1.5 should be out next month with substantial improvements across the board” | Feb 29, 2024 | @elonmusk, 2024-01-22 | Delivered · Late · 28 days late | |
| “This week, @xAI will open source Grok” | Mar 17, 2024 | Elon Musk on X, March 11 2024… | Delivered · on time | |
| “Grok 3 end of year after training on 100k H100s should be really something special” | end of 2024 | Elon Musk on X, July 1 2024… | Delivered · Late · 48 days late | |
| “Sadly quite true. It takes a lot of work to purge LLMs from the Internet training data. Grok 2, which comes out in August, will be a giant…” | Aug 31, 2024 | Elon Musk on X, July 1 2024… | Delivered · on time | |
| “we're really in the final stages of polishing Grok 3. Probably it gets released in about a week or two.” | Feb 27, 2025 | World Governments Summit… | Delivered · on time | |
| “Next week, Grok 3.5 early beta release to SuperGrok subscribers only.” | May 6, 2025 | @elonmusk on X, Apr 29 2025 | Missed · 544 days past due | |
| “I would expect Grock to yeah literally discover new new technologies that are actually useful no later than next year” | end of 2026 | xAI Grok 4 launch livestream… | Pending · 60 days left | |
| “Grok 5 will be out before the end of this year and it will be crushingly good.” | end of 2025 | Musk X post on Grok 5, Aug 7… | Missed · 305 days past due | |
| “Giant improvement with release of Imagine V2 in a few months!” | end of 2025 | @elonmusk on X | Delivered · Late · 32 days late | |
| “The @xAI Grok 2.5 model, which was our best model last year, is now open source. Grok 3 will be made open source in about 6 months.” | Feb 28, 2026 | @elonmusk on X, Aug 23 2025 | Missed · 246 days past due | |
| “Version 0.1 early beta of Grokipedia will be published in 2 weeks” | Oct 18, 2025 | @elonmusk, 2025-10-04 | Delivered · Late · 9 days late | |
| “Grok will make a movie that is at least watchable before the end of next year and really good movies in 2027.” | end of 2026 | Musk X post on Grok movies, Oct… | Pending · 60 days left | |
| “The XAI game studio will release a great AI-generated game before the end of next year” | end of 2026 | Musk X post on xAI game studio… | Pending · 60 days left | |
| “Grok 4.20 is coming in ~3 weeks and then Grok 5 in a few months” | end of 2025 | @elonmusk on X | Partial · 48 days late | |
| “Grokipedia is growing rapidly. Will far exceed Wikipedia this year.” | end of 2026 | @elonmusk on X | Pending · 60 days left | |
| “5 is Q1.” | Mar 31, 2026 | Moonshots podcast #220 — Elon… | Missed · 215 days past due | |
| “Major upgrade to Grok Code coming next month. It will one-shot many complex coding tasks.” | Feb 28, 2026 | @elonmusk on X | Partial · on time | |
| “Grok 4.2 will be about an order of magnitude smarter and faster than Grok 4 when the public beta concludes next month.” | Mar 31, 2026 | @elonmusk on X | Partial · on time | |
| “xAI will catch up this year and then exceed them all by such a long distance in 3 years that you will need the James Webb telescope to see who is in…” | end of 2026 | @elonmusk on X | Pending · 60 days left | |
| “We will open source the 0.5T model towards the end of this year. It should still be quite useful.” | end of 2026 | @elonmusk on X | Pending · 60 days left | |
| “Full movies by the end of this year” | end of 2026 | @elonmusk on X | Pending · 60 days left | |
| “Completely trained from scratch new models will be released by @SpaceX every month this year.” | end of 2026 | Elon Musk on X (@elonmusk)… | Pending · 60 days left | |
| “Truly massive gains will come in ~3 months when the entire training and inference stack is written in C/C++ and massively simplified (most software…” | Sep 30, 2026 | Elon Musk on X, Jun 29 2026… | Missed · 32 days past due | |
| “@SpaceXAI will make Grok 4.5 available to the public tomorrow. It is an Opus-class model, but faster, more token-efficient and lower cost.” | Jul 9, 2026 | Elon Musk on X (Jul 8 2026) | Delivered · on time | |
| “Before this year ends, Grok Imagine will make a full-length movie of The Odyssey that is historically accurate and true to the art of Homer” | end of 2026 | @elonmusk on X | Pending · 60 days left | |
| “And Grok 4.6 comes out in a week” | Aug 6, 2026 | Elon Musk on X (Jul 30 2026) | Delivered · Late · 1 day late | |
| “And then with GROK 5, which should be out before the end of this year, we will be incorporating the entire corpus of SpaceX data.” | end of 2026 | SpaceX Q2 2026 Earnings Call… | Pending · 60 days left | |
| “Grok 4.7 comes out in 10 days” | Sep 16, 2026 | @elonmusk on X, Sep 1 2026… | Delivered · Late · 5 days late | |
| “Grok 4.8, which is a 2.5T model trained with our new C++ software stack, will finish training this week and start RL” | Sep 20, 2026 | @elonmusk on X, Sep 13 2026… | Missed · 42 days past due | |
| “I am cautiously optimistic that SpaceX will have a Fable/GPT-6 level model in 2 to 3 months” | Dec 24, 2026 | @elonmusk on X, Sep 24 2026… | Pending · 53 days left | |
| “Another 220k GB300 will be fully operational next week and another 220k in November. If we get lucky, yet another 220k GB300 by late December.” | Oct 4, 2026 | @elonmusk on X, Sep 24 2026… | Missed · 28 days past due | |
| “Next year” | end of 2027 | @elonmusk on X, Oct 14 2026 | Pending · 425 days left | |
| “We already are in early deployment with some trusted customers, and we expect to be in wide deployment within a few weeks for enterprise customers…” | Nov 17, 2026 | SpaceX Q3 2026 earnings call… | Pending · 16 days left | |
| “Gun Range is tracking to be operational by end of November and Spam in December.” | Nov 30, 2026 | Elon Musk on X, Oct 31 2026 | Pending · 29 days left | |
| “There will be a total of around 1.2M Blackwells at Colossus 2 by end of year” | end of 2026 | Elon Musk on X, Oct 31 2026 | Pending · 60 days left |
“Yeah. Grok should be available to all X Premium+ subscribers next week.”
What happened: Musk said Grok would reach all Premium+ subscribers the next week. The rollout started on December 7 and was finished for US Premium+ users by December 8 2023, about a week late. TechCrunch Dec 8 2023 — Grok rolled out to all US Premium+ ↗
“Yes, Grok 1.5 should be out next month with substantial improvements across the board”
What happened: Musk said Grok 1.5 would be out in February 2024. xAI announced Grok-1.5 on March 28 2024 and rolled it out to users over the next weeks. xAI Mar 28 2024 — Announcing Grok-1.5 ↗
“This week, @xAI will open source Grok”
What happened: Delivered, barely inside the window: xAI published the Grok-1 base-model weights and architecture (314B-parameter MoE, Apache 2.0) on Sunday, March 17, 2024 — the last day of the promised week. Notably it was the raw pre-training checkpoint, not the fine-tuned model that powered Grok on X. TechCrunch — xAI open sources Grok-1 base model ↗
“Grok 3 end of year after training on 100k H100s should be really something special”
<iframe src="https://twoweeks.lol/embed/goalposts/grok-3-end-of-2024/" width="100%" height="230" style="border:0;max-width:720px" title="Grok 3 by end of 2024: every deadline Elon Musk gave" loading="lazy"></iframe>
<p style="font-size:12px">Source: <a href="https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/grok-5-release/#grok-3-end-of-2024">twoweeks.lol</a> Elon Musk prediction tracker</p>Elon Musk first made this promise on Jul 1, 2024, with a deadline of Dec 31, 2024. He has said it 2 times on the record. 1 of those statements pushed the date later. It happened on Feb 17, 2025, 48 days late against the first deadline.
“Sadly quite true. It takes a lot of work to purge LLMs from the Internet training data. Grok 2, which comes out in August, will be a giant improvement in this regard.”
What happened: Delivered on time: xAI released Grok 2 and Grok 2 mini in beta to X Premium subscribers on August 13-14, 2024, inside the promised August window — one of the rare Musk ship dates hit as stated. TechCrunch — xAI releases Grok-2 in beta ↗
“Next week, Grok 3.5 early beta release to SuperGrok subscribers only.”
What happened: Musk said on April 29 2025 that a Grok 3.5 early beta would come the next week. No Grok 3.5 ever shipped; xAI skipped to Grok 4, released July 9 2025. xAI — Grok 4 announcement (Jul 2025) ↗
“I would expect Grock to yeah literally discover new new technologies that are actually useful no later than next year”
What happened: Fetched Oct 26 2026: x.ai/news since the Grok 4 launch is product releases (Grok 4.7, Voice 3.0, Grok Bot, Partner Network). No official or press receipt that Grok discovered a useful new technology. Deadline Dec 31 2026. Status stays pending. xAI news (fetched Oct 26 2026) — product launches, no credited new-technology discovery ↗
“Giant improvement with release of Imagine V2 in a few months!”
What happened: The promised Grok Imagine video step-change did not land by end of 2025; Imagine 1.0 shipped Feb 1, 2026 and the leaderboard-topping V1.5 followed in May 2026, months late.
“The @xAI Grok 2.5 model, which was our best model last year, is now open source. Grok 3 will be made open source in about 6 months.”
What happened: Musk said Grok 3 would be open-sourced in about 6 months (~Feb 2026). xAI's Hugging Face organization, checked Oct 11 2026, lists only xai-org/grok-1 and xai-org/grok-2; no Grok 3 weights have been released. xAI on Hugging Face (checked Oct 11 2026) — only Grok-1 and Grok-2 ↗
“Version 0.1 early beta of Grokipedia will be published in 2 weeks”
What happened: Musk said Grokipedia v0.1 would be published within two weeks. It went live on October 27 2025, about nine days late, with about 885,000 articles. CNBC Oct 28 2025 — Grokipedia goes live ↗
“Grok will make a movie that is at least watchable before the end of next year and really good movies in 2027.”
Elon Musk first made this promise on Oct 6, 2025, with a deadline of Dec 31, 2026. He has said it 3 times on the record. None of them moved the date. The latest target is Dec 31, 2026. It has not happened yet.
“The XAI game studio will release a great AI-generated game before the end of next year”
What happened: Fetched Oct 27 2026: x.ai/news has no game-studio title (latest: Grok Voice 3.0 Oct 14, Partner Network Oct 22, Grok 4.7 Sep 21). Grok Build can make user games; that is not an xAI studio release of a great AI-generated game. Deadline Dec 31 2026. Status stays pending. x.ai/news fetched Oct 27 2026 — no xAI game-studio release ↗
“Grok 4.20 is coming in ~3 weeks and then Grok 5 in a few months”
What happened: Grok 4.20 slipped from the ~3-week (late-Dec 2025) target to a Feb 17, 2026 beta; Grok 5 remained in training with no release as of mid-2026. Re-graded partial (2026-07-05 audit): Grok 4.20 genuinely shipped — public beta Feb 17, 2026, ~7 weeks past the '~3 weeks' deadline — so 'missed' was factually wrong. Partial rather than delivered-late because the compound promise's second half (Grok 5 'a few months later') never materialized: Q1 slipped, Q2 passed, and as of July 2026 Grok 5 is still in training with no release date. NextBigFuture — Grok 4.20 launch, Feb 2026 ↗
“Grokipedia is growing rapidly. Will far exceed Wikipedia this year.”
What happened: Fetched Oct 25 2026: English Wikipedia has 7,255,016 articles (Wikipedia:Size of Wikipedia, 12:12 UTC Oct 25). Grokipedia's own page still lists 6,092,140 articles (displayed total frozen since ~Jan 10 2026). Grokipedia has not far exceeded Wikipedia. Deadline end of 2026. Status stays pending. Wikipedia:Size of Wikipedia (fetched Oct 25 2026) — 7,255,016 English articles vs Grokipedia's frozen 6,092,140 ↗
“Major upgrade to Grok Code coming next month. It will one-shot many complex coding tasks.”
What happened: A major coding upgrade landed on time: Grok 4.20 launched in beta Feb 17, 2026 with a multi-agent architecture aimed at one-shotting complex tasks (the standalone Grok Build agent came later, in May). Re-graded partial (2026-07-05 audit): the promise named Grok Code specifically, and that product line never received the upgrade — grok-code-fast-1 was deprecated May 15, 2026 without a successor in the window. What landed near the deadline was Grok 4.20 beta (Feb 17), a general-purpose flagship with strong one-shot coding, and the dedicated coding agent (Grok Build) only reached early beta May 14 — ~2.5 months late. Substance adjacent, promise-as-stated unfulfilled. Verdent — Grok coding landscape 2026 (Grok Code vs Grok 4.20 vs Grok Build) ↗
“Grok 4.2 will be about an order of magnitude smarter and faster than Grok 4 when the public beta concludes next month.”
What happened: Grok 4.2 shipped and improved on Grok 4, but gains were incremental (e.g. ~75% SWE-bench), not the promised 'order of magnitude' smarter and faster. Date added in the 2026-07-05 verdict audit: the partial fulfillment is anchored to ~Mar 18, 2026, when Grok 4.2 exited public beta — the exact reference point of the claim ('when the public beta concludes'). Grok 4.2 shipped and improved on Grok 4, but benchmarks (~70.8% SWE-Bench vs GPT-5's ~74.9% and Claude 4.5's 80.9%) are nowhere near 'an order of magnitude smarter and faster.'
“xAI will catch up this year and then exceed them all by such a long distance in 3 years that you will need the James Webb telescope to see who is in second place”
What happened: Fetched Oct 25 2026: BenchLeader/Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index v4.3.2 lists Grok 4.7 (xhigh) 32nd at 46.5, behind Claude Opus 5.5 (57.6), Claude Sonnet 5.5 (56), Muse Wonder Full (55.8), Kimi K3.1 Pro (55.1) and GPT-6 Astra (52.7). xAI has not caught up to the leaders. Deadline end of 2026. Status stays pending. BenchLeader/AA Intelligence Index fetched Oct 25 2026 — Grok 4.7 xhigh 32nd at 46.5, not industry #1 ↗
“We will open source the 0.5T model towards the end of this year. It should still be quite useful.”
What happened: Fetched Oct 25 2026: Hugging Face xai-org still lists only grok-1 (Mar 2024) and grok-2 (Nov 2025). No 0.5T / 500B Grok weights. xAI has open-sourced Grok Build (a coding agent), not the 0.5T model. Deadline end of 2026. Status stays pending. Hugging Face xai-org fetched Oct 25 2026 — grok-1 and grok-2 only; no 0.5T open weights ↗
“Completely trained from scratch new models will be released by @SpaceX every month this year.”
What happened: Fetched Oct 29 2026: x.ai/news latest public foundation model is still Grok 4.7 (Sep 21). October's newsroom drops are Grok Voice 3.0 (Oct 14) and Grok Bot posts, not a completely-from-scratch new foundation model. Grok 4.8 remains unreleased. Deadline Dec 31 2026. Status stays pending. x.ai/news fetched Oct 29 2026 — Grok 4.7 still latest public model; no October from-scratch foundation drop ↗
“Truly massive gains will come in ~3 months when the entire training and inference stack is written in C/C++ and massively simplified (most software layers will be deleted completely) and we exact-map Grok to work incredibly well on a GB300”
What happened: Deadline Sep 30 2026 passed with no public receipt of 'truly massive gains' from a full C/C++ training-and-inference rewrite exact-mapped to GB300. Fetched Nov 1 2026: docs.x.ai still lists Grok 4.7 as flagship; no grok-4.8. Status stays missed. xAI docs fetched Nov 1 2026: Grok 4.7 flagship, no 4.8/C++-stack receipt ↗
“@SpaceXAI will make Grok 4.5 available to the public tomorrow. It is an Opus-class model, but faster, more token-efficient and lower cost.”
What happened: Musk announced on July 8, 2026 that xAI would make Grok 4.5 public the next day. It shipped on schedule: as of July 9, 2026 Grok 4.5 is live on the xAI API (priced $2/1M input, $6/1M output tokens), set as the default in Grok Build, available across all Cursor plan tiers, and on the SpaceXAI console (EU excluded at launch). Musk billed it as an 'Opus-class' model that is faster, more token-efficient and lower cost. xAI release notes ↗
“And Grok 4.6 comes out in a week”
What happened: On July 30, 2026 Musk said Grok 4.6 would 'come out in a week' (~Aug 6). xAI publicly released Grok 4.6 on August 7, 2026 — one day past the implied deadline. It is a 1.5T-parameter model on the same V9 foundation as Grok 4.5, with gains from improved supervised fine-tuning and reinforcement learning. Delivered, one day late. KuCoin (Aug 7 2026) ↗
“Grok 4.7 comes out in 10 days”
<iframe src="https://twoweeks.lol/embed/goalposts/grok-4-7-out-in-10-days/" width="100%" height="230" style="border:0;max-width:720px" title="Grok 4.7 needs a few more days (by Sep 16, 2026): every deadline Elon Musk gave" loading="lazy"></iframe>
<p style="font-size:12px">Source: <a href="https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/grok-5-release/#grok-4-7-out-in-10-days">twoweeks.lol</a> Elon Musk prediction tracker</p>What happened: Deadline Sep 16 2026 passed with no public Grok 4.7 (Missed Sep 17). On Sep 21 2026, xAI publicly released Grok 4.7 — available today in Cursor and Grok Build, and on the xAI API as grok-4.7 (docs.x.ai/docs/models lists it as the flagship text model; release notes confirm API availability). Delivered, 5 days late. x.ai — Introducing Grok 4.7 (Sep 21 2026) ↗
“Grok 4.8, which is a 2.5T model trained with our new C++ software stack, will finish training this week and start RL”
What happened: Musk said Sep 14 that Grok 4.8 would finish training that week and start RL. Deadline Sep 20 passed with no public training-complete receipt. Fetched Nov 1 2026: docs.x.ai still has no grok-4.8; Oct 30 Musk said 4.8 'has taken longer than expected' with no training-done confirmation. Status stays missed. xAI docs fetched Nov 1 2026: no Grok 4.8 ↗
“I am cautiously optimistic that SpaceX will have a Fable/GPT-6 level model in 2 to 3 months”
What happened: Musk (Sep 24) was 'cautiously optimistic' SpaceX would have a Fable/GPT-6 level model in 2 to 3 months (deadline Dec 24 2026). Fetched Oct 31 2026: docs.x.ai flagship is still grok-4.7; Grok 4.8 has not shipped. Status stays pending. docs.x.ai models, fetched Oct 31 2026 — grok-4.7 still flagship; no Fable/GPT-6-class successor announced ↗
“Another 220k GB300 will be fully operational next week and another 220k in November. If we get lucky, yet another 220k GB300 by late December.”
What happened: Musk (Sep 24) said another 220k GB300 would be fully operational next week (outer bound Oct 4). Fetched Nov 1 2026: Epoch AI Colossus 2 page is still last updated Jul 30. Musk's Oct 31 Colossus 2 walkthrough says Macroharder and Minihard already have 220k GB300s each and Gun Range (the next 220k) is tracking end of November — not a receipt that the Oct 4 '+220k next week' tranche went live on time. Stays missed; watch to flip missed → delivered-late if that specific extra tranche is confirmed live. Elon Oct 31 2026: Gun Range (next 220k GB300) still end of November ↗
“Next year”
What happened: Fetched Oct 28 2026: x.ai/news still has no xAI game-studio title (latest: Grok Voice 3.0 Oct 14, Partner Network Oct 22, Grok 4.7 Sep 21). Grok Build can make user games; that is not solo developers shipping studio-quality games as a market. Deadline Dec 31 2027. Status stays pending. x.ai/news fetched Oct 28 2026 — no xAI game-studio / studio-quality solo-dev title ↗
“We already are in early deployment with some trusted customers, and we expect to be in wide deployment within a few weeks for enterprise customers for GrokBot.”
What happened: Pending until about November 17, 2026. Grok Bot for Enterprise was listed on x.ai as of Sep 3 (early/trusted deployment, which the Oct 20 quote already acknowledged). Fetched Oct 31 2026: no new xAI/Elon receipt of wide enterprise deployment beyond trusted customers; the Oct 27 sales-bot post is SpaceXSI's own team. Status stays pending. x.ai Grok Bot for Enterprise (Sep 3 2026 announcement); no Oct 31 wide-rollout receipt ↗
“Gun Range is tracking to be operational by end of November and Spam in December.”
What happened: Pending until Nov 30, 2026. Musk's reply on X ↗
“There will be a total of around 1.2M Blackwells at Colossus 2 by end of year”
What happened: Pending until Dec 31, 2026. Musk's reply on X ↗
Pending
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