Missed

Falcon 9 Air Force (EELV) certification completed in 2014

Elon Musk promised Falcon 9 Air Force (EELV) certification completed in 2014 by the end of 2014. The deadline passed and it didn't happen.

Starlink via our referral: you get a $100 credit after 2 months subscribed (US, Oct 2026 terms). Order in the tab that opens.Get Starlink →
Get an email when this verdict changes. The Daily Verdict covers every change on the board, this one included, and only goes out on days something happens.
“completing that certification this year”
— Elon Musk · Mar 5, 2014 · U.S. Senate Hearing on National Security Space Launch (March 5, 2014), video, ~00:50:16 00:50:16 ↗
Video: U.S. Senate Hearing on National Security Space Launch (March 5, 2014), video, ~00:50:16
▶ WATCH HIM SAY IT @ 00:50:16 — U.S. SENATE HEARING ON NATIONAL SECURITY SPACE LAUNCH (MARCH 5, 2014), VIDEO, ~00:50:16
What actually happened

The US Air Force certified Falcon 9 for national security launches on May 26, 2015, after SpaceX sued over the block-buy contract. Wikipedia: Falcon 9 (certified for NSSL May 26, 2015) ↗

The Progression

Mar 5, 2014
The promise: “completing that certification this year” · U.S. Senate Hearing on National Security Space Launch (March 5, 2014), video, ~00:50:16 00:50:16 ↗
Dec 31, 2014
Deadline passed. The US Air Force certified Falcon 9 for national security launches on May 26, 2015, after SpaceX sued over the block-buy contract. Wikipedia: Falcon 9 (certified for NSSL May 26, 2015) ↗
Today · Oct 12, 2026
Status: Missed · 4,303 days past due. Never happened.

At a March 2014 Senate hearing Elon Musk said SpaceX expected to complete Air Force certification for national security launches that year. Certification came in May 2015.

Win the argument. Share the receipt.
The post comes pre-loaded with his quote, the clock, and the share card — one tap and it's settled.
Post the receipt

Receipts

LAST CHECKED 2026-10-12

SpaceX’s record

Delivered
31
38% of resolved claims delivered.
Missed
50
Deadline passed, still no-show.
Still open
43
On the clock now. All 124 SpaceX claims →

Read next

Also SpaceX, resolves soonest
Also SpaceX, resolves soonest
Also SpaceX, resolves soonest

Discussion

Loading…
← Starship orbital refilling demonstrated within two years (by early 2024) AI drives 90% of all distance driven within about 10 years (by 2036) →
/// The Daily Verdict
Know the moment a prediction lands — or doesn't.
One email a day, only when something changes: a new promise, a blown deadline, a goalpost move, or a rare on-time delivery. No spam, instant unsubscribe.