Missed
Missed
A Starship and Super Heavy every month by end of 2022
“And I think by the end of this year we'll be able to produce a ship and a booster per month.”
Missed
Starship orbital refilling demonstrated within two years (by
Elon Musk promised Starship orbital refilling demonstrated within two years (by early 2024) by Feb 10, 2024. The deadline passed and it didn't happen.
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“Optimistically, towards the end of next year, I think I'd be surprised if it's longer than two years for doing the refilling”
— Elon Musk · Feb 10, 2022 · SpaceX Starship Update (February 10, 2022), video, ~01:20:46 01:20:46 ↗
▶ WATCH HIM SAY IT @ 01:20:46 — SPACEX STARSHIP UPDATE (FEBRUARY 10, 2022), VIDEO, ~01:20:46
What actually happened
No Starship orbital refilling was done by February 2024. Only an internal propellant transfer test happened (Flight 3, March 2024), and ship-to-ship transfer was still undone through 2025 (#442). Wikipedia: List of Starship launches ↗
The Progression
Feb 10, 2022
The promise: “Optimistically, towards the end of next year, I think I'd be surprised if it's longer than two years for doing the refilling” · SpaceX Starship Update (February 10, 2022), video, ~01:20:46 01:20:46 ↗
Feb 10, 2024
Deadline passed. No Starship orbital refilling was done by February 2024. Only an internal propellant transfer test happened (Flight 3, March 2024), and ship-to-ship transfer was still undone through 2025 (#442). Wikipedia: List of Starship launches ↗
Today · Oct 12, 2026
Status: Missed · 975 days past due. Never happened.
At the February 2022 Starship update Elon Musk said orbital refilling might come by the end of 2023 and he would be surprised if it took longer than two years. It did not happen by early 2024.
Receipts
LAST CHECKED 2026-10-12- [VIDEO] SpaceX Starship Update (February 10, 2022), video, ~01:20:46 @ 01:20:46
- [TRANSCRIPT] SpaceX Starship Update (February 10, 2022) — Elon Musk Archive transcript @ 01:20:46
SpaceX’s record
Delivered
31
38% of resolved claims delivered.
Missed
50
Deadline passed, still no-show.
More Starship and SpaceX rocket predictions
- Starship Flight 15 datePending
- Starship orbital refueling: demo promised by end of 2026Pending
- How many Starships in 2026? Elon says ~10 morePending
- Starship ship catch by the tower: moved 2 times so farPending
- SpaceX demonstrates full Starship reusability in 2026 (stillPending
- Starship reflight: first reused ship by Mar 31, 2027?Pending
- Starships landing on the Moon within about three years (byPending
- Starship daily flights: once a day by Aug 4, 2027?Pending
- Starship landing and reuse: promised 2023, moved 3 timesPending
- When will Starship carry humans? Elon says by end of 2027Pending
- Starship rapid reusability: full reflight by end of 2027?Pending
- Starship reaches a weekly or twice-weekly launch cadence inPending
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