Missed
Dragon visits the space station for the first time in 2010
“And then next year we go to the space station for the first time.”
Elon Musk promised First Dragon flies on Falcon 9 by end of 2009 by the end of 2009. The deadline passed and it didn't happen.
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“Yeah, and then let's see then at the end of this year, hopefully we'll launch our first dragon spacecraft from Falcon 9.”
— Elon Musk · Apr 7, 2009 · Churchill Club: An Evening with Elon Musk (April 7, 2009), video, ~00:59:45 00:59:45 ↗
▶ WATCH HIM SAY IT @ 00:59:45 — CHURCHILL CLUB: AN EVENING WITH ELON MUSK (APRIL 7, 2009), VIDEO, ~00:59:45
What actually happened
Dragon first flew on Falcon 9 flight 2 (COTS Demo Flight 1) on Dec 8 2010, about a year after the end-2009 target. Wikipedia: COTS Demo Flight 1 (Dec 8 2010) ↗
The Progression
Apr 7, 2009
The promise: “Yeah, and then let's see then at the end of this year, hopefully we'll launch our first dragon spacecraft from Falcon 9.” · Churchill Club: An Evening with Elon Musk (April 7, 2009), video, ~00:59:45 00:59:45 ↗
Dec 31, 2009
Deadline passed. Dragon first flew on Falcon 9 flight 2 (COTS Demo Flight 1) on Dec 8 2010, about a year after the end-2009 target. Wikipedia: COTS Demo Flight 1 (Dec 8 2010) ↗
Today · Oct 12, 2026
Status: Missed · 6,129 days past due. Never happened.
At the Churchill Club in April 2009 Elon Musk said SpaceX would hopefully launch its first Dragon spacecraft on Falcon 9 at the end of 2009. Dragon first flew in December 2010.
Receipts
LAST CHECKED 2026-10-12- [VIDEO] Churchill Club: An Evening with Elon Musk (April 7, 2009), video, ~00:59:45 @ 00:59:45
- [TRANSCRIPT] Churchill Club: An Evening with Elon Musk, April 7, 2009 — Elon Musk Archive transcript @ 00:59:45
SpaceX’s record
Delivered
31
38% of resolved claims delivered.
Missed
50
Deadline passed, still no-show.
More Starship and SpaceX rocket predictions
- Starship Flight 15 datePending
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- Starship daily flights: once a day by Aug 4, 2027?Pending
- Starship landing and reuse: promised 2023, moved 3 timesPending
- When will Starship carry humans? Elon says by end of 2027Pending
- Starship rapid reusability: full reflight by end of 2027?Pending
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← Falcon 1 first launch from Vandenberg around March 2004
Falcon 9 first launch later in 2009 from Cape Canaveral →
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