Starship V3 and every Starship date Elon Musk gave
When did Starship V3 first fly?
On May 29, 2025, Elon Musk first promised the first Starship V3 flight for 2025, then moved the date 4 times. It happened, but 0.4 years late. Verdict as of November 15, 2026: delivered late. twoweeks.lol tracks 31 Musk claims about Starship (46 statements): 13 delivered (3 on time), 6 missed or cancelled, 12 still pending.
5 deadlines for one promise, moved 4 times. 4 have passed.
said 2025todayDate 1 of 5: 2025 · deadline passed · said May 29, 2025Date 2 of 5: ~Mar 9 2026 (Jan 26: 'Starship launch in 6 weeks') · deadline passedDate 3 of 5: Mar 2026 · deadline passedDate 4 of 5: May 2026 · deadline passedDate 5 of 5: Apr 2026 · delivered late · said Mar 7, 2026
202520262027
goalposts: 2025 → ~Mar 9 2026 (Jan 26: 'Starship launch in 6 weeks') → Mar 2026 → May 2026 → Apr 2026 · moved 4×
passed replaced open deliveredEmbed this chart<iframe src="https://twoweeks.lol/embed/goalposts/starship-next-flight-v3-2026/" width="100%" height="230" style="border:0;max-width:720px" title="Starship's next flight (V3 debut): every deadline Elon Musk gave" loading="lazy"></iframe>
<p style="font-size:12px">Source: <a href="https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/starship-next-flight-v3-2026/">twoweeks.lol</a> Elon Musk prediction tracker</p>
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What actually happened
Promised in Feb 2026 that Starship would fly 'next month' (March), re-affirmed in April that the V3 booster and ship would be ready 'in a few weeks.' Flight 12 — the V3 debut — slipped and launched May 22, 2026, ~2 months past the March target.
The Progression
3 STATEMENTS · ONE CLAIM
Starship dates start in March 2018, when Musk said short test hops would fly in the first half of 2019. Starhopper made its first free hop on July 25, 2019. At the September 2019 update he said Starship might reach orbit in under six months. The first integrated test flew on April 20, 2023. Starship reached orbit on Flight 14, September 28, 2026, and deployed 26 Starlink V3 satellites.
Version 3 followed the same pattern. Musk aimed its first launch at the end of 2025, then March 2026, then early April. Flight 12, the V3 debut, launched on May 22, 2026.
Catching and reusing the rocket has taken longer. The tower caught a Super Heavy booster on October 13, 2024, the year he gave 80-90% odds for. A ship catch, first promised for late 2024, happened on Flight 15 on November 14, 2026, when the tower caught Ship 42 at Starbase. The booster catch on that flight was aborted; Super Heavy B22 ditched in the Gulf. Full reusability was a "very high probability" for 2025, then expected in 2026, and now in 2027. Ship-to-ship propellant transfer, first expected by early 2024, has not flown.
The flight-rate targets keep growing: a ship and a booster every month by the end of 2022, pad turnaround under 24 hours in 2024, weekly flights in 2027, a flight a day by August 2027, hourly flights in two to three years, and more than 30 launches a day in 2030.
Elon Musk first made this promise on May 29, 2025, with a deadline of Dec 31, 2025. He has said it 3 times on the record. 2 of those statements pushed the date later. It happened on May 22, 2026, 0.4 years late against the first deadline.
Delivered · Late — 0.4 years late. Promised in Feb 2026 that Starship would fly 'next month' (March), re-affirmed in April that the V3 booster and ship would be ready 'in a few weeks.' Flight 12 — the V3 debut — slipped and launched May 22, 2026, ~2 months past the March target.
Today · Nov 15, 2026
Verdict on the claim: Delivered · Late · 0.4 years late. 3 statements, goalpost moved 4×.
Promised in Feb 2026 that Starship would fly 'next month' (March), re-affirmed in April that the V3 booster and ship would be ready 'in a few weeks.' Flight 12 — the V3 debut — slipped and launched May 22, 2026, ~2 months past the March target.
Every statement, dated
46 STATEMENTS · AS OF NOVEMBER 15, 2026
Every statement Elon Musk made on Starship, oldest first. Outcome is how each statement was graded on its own.
Date said
What he said
Deadline given
Source
Outcome
“And I think we'll be able to do short flights, short sort of up and down flights probably sometime in the first half of next year.”
“We're expecting our license approval from the FAA around the end of this year and then so that probably means a launch attempt in January or perhaps…”
“So we don't know the exact launch date, but probably about four weeks or so. Four to six weeks is about right. Probably launches a little bit before…”
“For Flight 15, which we expect to happen next month, we're going to attempt to catch both the booster and the ship. This will be, if we succeed, will…”
What happened: Starhopper made tethered hops of a few centimetres in early April 2019, but its first free hop (about 20 m) came on Jul 25 2019, after the first-half deadline. Wikipedia: Starhopper ↗
4 deadlines for one promise, moved 3 times. 3 have passed.
said 2019todayDate 1 of 4: 2020 · deadline passedDate 2 of 4: 2022 · deadline passedDate 3 of 4: Feb 2022 · deadline passed · said Nov 17, 2021Date 4 of 4: 2023 · delivered late · said Apr 29, 2023
20192021202320252027
goalposts: 2020 → 2022 → Feb 2022 → 2023 · moved 3×
passed replaced open deliveredEmbed this chart<iframe src="https://twoweeks.lol/embed/goalposts/starship-reaches-orbit/" width="100%" height="230" style="border:0;max-width:720px" title="Starship reaches orbit: every deadline Elon Musk gave" loading="lazy"></iframe>
<p style="font-size:12px">Source: <a href="https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/starship-next-flight-v3-2026/#starship-reaches-orbit">twoweeks.lol</a> Elon Musk prediction tracker</p>
Elon Musk first made this promise on Sep 28, 2019, with a deadline of Dec 31, 2022. He has said it 3 times on the record. 1 of those statements pushed the date later. It happened on Sep 28, 2026, 4.6 years late against the first deadline.
Restated · due Feb 28, 2022 “We're expecting our license approval from the FAA around the end of this year and then so that probably means a launch attempt in January or perhaps February.” · NASEM Space Studies Board (November 17, 2021), video, ~00:39:43 00:39:43 ↗ Delivered · Late · 1.1 years late
Delivered · Late — 4.6 years late. Musk wanted Starship to reach orbit in less than six months from the Sep 28, 2019 Starship Update (later restated through 2022). Flights 1–13 stayed suborbital; Flight 3 (Mar 14, 2024) first hit orbital velocity. Re-graded delivered-late (2026-10-10): Starship Flight 14 on Sep 28, 2026 performed an orbital-insertion burn about 25 minutes after liftoff, entered a 262×275 km low Earth orbit, and deployed 26 operational Starlink V3 satellites — the first time Starship reached Earth orbit, years after the 2022 deadline. SpaceX shortened the planned six-orbit coast after an engine-out and splashed down north of Hawaii after about three hours. SpacePolicyOnline — Starship Achieves Orbit for the First Time (Sep 28 2026, fetched Oct 10) ↗
Today · Nov 15, 2026
Verdict on the claim: Delivered · Late · 4.6 years late. 3 statements, goalpost moved 3×.
7 deadlines for one promise, moved 6 times. 3 have passed.
said 2019todayDate 1 of 7: 2023 · deadline passedDate 2 of 7: 2025 · deadline passed · said Mar 25, 2024Date 3 of 7: 2026 · replaced by a later date · said Sep 7, 2025Date 4 of 7: 2027 · replaced by a later date · said Sep 15, 2026Date 5 of 7: 2025 · deadline passed · said Mar 25, 2024Date 6 of 7: 2026 · replaced by a later date · said Sep 7, 2025Date 7 of 7: 2027 · still open · said Sep 15, 2026
passed replaced open deliveredEmbed this chart<iframe src="https://twoweeks.lol/embed/goalposts/starship-fully-reusable/" width="100%" height="230" style="border:0;max-width:720px" title="Starship fully reusable: every deadline Elon Musk gave" loading="lazy"></iframe>
<p style="font-size:12px">Source: <a href="https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/starship-next-flight-v3-2026/#starship-fully-reusable">twoweeks.lol</a> Elon Musk prediction tracker</p>
Elon Musk first made this promise on Sep 28, 2019, with a deadline of Dec 31, 2027. He has said it 4 times on the record. 2 of those statements pushed the date later. The latest target is Dec 31, 2027. It has not happened yet.
Restated · due Dec 31, 2026 “And I think it's, I think, I think unless we have some very major setbacks, SpaceX will demonstrate full reusability next year, catching both the booster and the ship and being able to deliver over 100 tons to a useful orbit.” · All-In Summit (September 7, 2025), video, ~00:21:07 00:21:07 ↗ Pending
Sep 15, 2026
Restated · due Dec 31, 2027 “I think it's extremely likely that we will achieve full reusability with rapid reflight next year in 2027. It's really the critical breakthrough that's necessary to extend life beyond Earth.” · All-In Summit interview, Elon Musk speaking (published Sep 15 2026) ↗ Pending
Today · Nov 15, 2026
Verdict on the claim: Pending · 411 days left. 4 statements, goalpost moved 6×.
What happened: SpaceX did not reach that rate in 2020. At the Feb 10 2022 Starbase update Musk said SpaceX was now making about one Raptor a day, about 14 months late. Payload, Feb 2022 Starship update: 'one Raptor a day' ↗
What happened: Musk said in August 2021 that the first orbital Starship stack would be ready to fly in a few weeks. The first integrated flight came on April 20 2023, about 20 months later. Spaceflight Now Apr 20 2023 — first Starship flight ↗
What happened: SpaceX had not flown a single integrated Starship by the end of 2022, and production ran far below one ship plus one booster a month. Wikipedia: SpaceX Starship development ↗
What happened: Neither a Starship launch capability at Cape 39A nor an ocean platform existed by the end of 2022. Fetched Nov 4 2026: Wikipedia still lists Pad 39A (Starship) as under construction; SpaceX's Jason Tenenbaum said Oct 26 the pad is in its final build-out and looking to be ready to launch this year, which is not a flown launch. The converted oil rigs (Phobos and Deimos) were sold off in 2024 without ever launching. Status stays missed. Wikipedia — LC-39A Starship pad still under construction (page edited Nov 2 2026; fetched Nov 4) ↗
3 deadlines for one promise, moved 2 times. 2 have passed.
said 2022todayDate 1 of 3: Feb 2024 · deadline passed · said Feb 10, 2022Date 2 of 3: 2025 · deadline passed · said Apr 4, 2024Date 3 of 3: 2026 · still open · said Jan 6, 2026
202220232024202520262027
goalposts: Feb 2024 → 2025 → 2026 · moved 2×
passed replaced open deliveredEmbed this chart<iframe src="https://twoweeks.lol/embed/goalposts/starship-orbital-refilling-within-two-years-2022/" width="100%" height="230" style="border:0;max-width:720px" title="Starship orbital refilling demonstrated within two years (by early 2024): every deadline Elon Musk gave" loading="lazy"></iframe>
<p style="font-size:12px">Source: <a href="https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/starship-next-flight-v3-2026/#starship-orbital-refilling-within-two-years-2022">twoweeks.lol</a> Elon Musk prediction tracker</p>
Elon Musk first made this promise on Feb 10, 2022, with a deadline of Feb 10, 2024. He has said it 3 times on the record. 2 of those statements pushed the date later. The latest target is Dec 31, 2026. It has not happened yet.
6 deadlines for one promise, moved 5 times. 4 have passed.
said 2023todayDate 1 of 6: 2024 · deadline passed · said Oct 5, 2023Date 2 of 6: 2025 · deadline passed · said May 14, 2025Date 3 of 6: 2026-08 (next flight / Flight 14) · deadline passedDate 4 of 6: 2026-11 (a few months) · replaced by a later dateDate 5 of 6: 2026-09-15 All-In: Flight 14 confirmation; Flight 15 first ship-catch attempt (~50–60% odds) · deadline passedDate 6 of 6: Nov 2026 · delivered late · said Oct 20, 2026
20232024202520262027
goalposts: 2024 → 2025 → 2026-08 (next flight / Flight 14) → 2026-11 (a few months) → 2026-09-15 All-In: Flight 14 confirmation; Flight 15 first ship-catch attempt (~50–60% odds) → Nov 2026 · moved 5×
passed replaced open deliveredEmbed this chart<iframe src="https://twoweeks.lol/embed/goalposts/starship-ship-catch-end-of-2024/" width="100%" height="230" style="border:0;max-width:720px" title="Starship upper stage caught toward end of 2024: every deadline Elon Musk gave" loading="lazy"></iframe>
<p style="font-size:12px">Source: <a href="https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/starship-next-flight-v3-2026/#starship-ship-catch-end-of-2024">twoweeks.lol</a> Elon Musk prediction tracker</p>
Elon Musk first made this promise on Oct 5, 2023, with a deadline of Dec 31, 2024. He has said it 4 times on the record. 2 of those statements pushed the date later. It happened on Nov 14, 2026, 1.9 years late against the first deadline.
Goalpost moved · due Dec 31, 2025 “Later this year, if fate smiles upon SpaceX, the ship will be caught by the tower, just like the booster” · @elonmusk on X ↗ Missed · 319 days past due
Jul 25, 2026
Goalpost moved · due Dec 31, 2026 “Unless we discover problems after mission data review, SpaceX will attempt to catch the ship with the tower on next flight” · @elonmusk on X ↗ Delivered · on time
Oct 20, 2026
Restated · due Nov 30, 2026 “For Flight 15, which we expect to happen next month, we're going to attempt to catch both the booster and the ship. This will be, if we succeed, will be the first time that an orbital launch vehicle has been fully recovered.” · SpaceX Q3 2026 earnings call, Elon Musk remarks, Oct 20 2026 2:32 ↗ Partial · on time
Nov 14, 2026
Delivered · Late — 1.9 years late. Delivered. On November 14, 2026 at 21:20 UTC (3:20 pm CST) the Starbase tower caught Ship 42 at Orbital Launch Pad 2 after a 22.5-hour Flight 15, the first tower catch of a Starship upper stage. SpaceX posted “Mechazilla catches Starship!” The original “next flight” after Flight 13 was Flight 14; the catch was goalposted onto Flight 15 and landed before the card’s end-2026 deadline. Fetched Nov 15 2026. Wikipedia Starship flight 15 — Ship 42 caught at OLP-2, 21:20 UTC Nov 14 2026 ↗
Today · Nov 15, 2026
Verdict on the claim: Delivered · Late · 1.9 years late. 4 statements, goalpost moved 5×.
What happened: After March 25, 2024 Starship flew three more times that year (Flights 4, 5 and 6 in June, October and November), not five or six. Wikipedia: List of Starship launches ↗
2 deadlines for one promise, moved 1 time. 1 has passed.
said 2024todayDate 1 of 2: 2025 · deadline passed · said Apr 4, 2024Date 2 of 2: Mar 2027 · still open · said Aug 20, 2026
20242025202620272028
goalposts: 2025 → Mar 2027 · moved 1×
passed replaced open deliveredEmbed this chart<iframe src="https://twoweeks.lol/embed/goalposts/starship-ship-reused-in-2025/" width="100%" height="230" style="border:0;max-width:720px" title="Starship ship reused in 2025: every deadline Elon Musk gave" loading="lazy"></iframe>
<p style="font-size:12px">Source: <a href="https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/starship-next-flight-v3-2026/#starship-ship-reused-in-2025">twoweeks.lol</a> Elon Musk prediction tracker</p>
Elon Musk first made this promise on Apr 4, 2024, with a deadline of Dec 31, 2025. He has said it 2 times on the record. 1 of those statements pushed the date later. The latest target is Mar 31, 2027. It has not happened yet.
“We just want—if we can get the damn ship back intact, we can iterate a lot better. I think we'll get it back intact this year. We might be able to refly one with a fair bit of work by the end of this year.”
What happened: Said on JRE #2281 (Feb 28, 2025), so 'this year' = 2025. SpaceX never recovered a Starship upper-stage SHIP intact in 2025. Across all 2025 flights the ship was either destroyed or, at best, did a controlled ocean splashdown and was NOT brought back: Flight 7 (Jan 16) ship exploded over Turks & Caicos; Flight 8 (Mar 6) ship lost attitude control and was lost; Flight 9 (May 27, Ship 35) broke up on re-entry; Flight 10 (Aug 26) made a powered splashdown in the Indian Ocean (not recovered); Flight 11 (Oct 13, the final flight of 2025) softly splashed down in the Indian Ocean then tipped over and exploded. Only the Super Heavy BOOSTER was caught by the tower during 2025 — catching the booster ≠ recovering the ship. No ship was caught by the tower or returned to land intact in 2025. The 'get it back intact this year' milestone was MISSED. Wikipedia: SpaceX Starship — 2025 flight test outcomes (Flights 7-11; all ships expended/lost, none recovered intact) ↗
“V3 should be built & tested (maybe flown) by end of this year.”
Elon Musk · said Aug 27, 2025 · due Dec 31, 2025 · @elonmusk on X ↗ · #219
What happened: Musk said on Aug 27, 2025 that Starship V3 should be 'built & tested (maybe flown) by end of this year.' V3 was not ready by Dec 31, 2025 — V2 flew through 2025. V3 finally debuted on Flight 12 on May 22, 2026: it reached space, deployed 22 Starlink simulators and the Ship splashed down in the Indian Ocean as planned (the Super Heavy booster crash-landed downrange). Built, tested and flown — about five months past the end-2025 target. Space.com ↗
“1M tons to orbit should be possible in roughy 5 years”
Elon Musk · said Jun 10, 2026 · due Dec 31, 2031 · @elonmusk on X ↗ · #189
What happened: Fetched Nov 7 2026: Starship Flight 14 (Sep 28) remains the first orbital Starship mission (26 Starlink V3 sats). Flight 15 is still unflown (Wikipedia NET Nov 13). The Space Road (updated Nov 7): 14 flights, 1 orbit, no operational cadence. Not 1 million tons/year to orbit. Deadline 2031. Status stays pending. Wikipedia Starship flight 15 (fetched Nov 7 2026) — unflown; not 1M tons/year ↗
“For Starship, obviously we need to make Starship super reliable for satellites before we put any people on board. We are expecting to have a very high launch rate and thus achieve a level of safety needed for humans very quickly, probably by the end of next year.”
“Starbase Louisiana will ultimately have over a dozen launch towers, enabling more than 30 Starship flights per day and making it the biggest launch site on Earth!”
Elon Musk first made this promise on Sep 15, 2026, with a deadline of Sep 22, 2026. He has said it 2 times on the record. 1 of those statements pushed the date later. It happened on Sep 28, 2026, 6 days late against the first deadline.
Delivered · Late — 6 days late. Musk (Sep 27 evening CT) said Starship Flight 14 was aiming to launch tomorrow morning — deadline Sep 28. Wikipedia Starship flight 14 (fetched Sep 29 2026) records liftoff at 2026-09-28 12:48:59 UTC (7:48:59 CDT) from Starbase OLP-2 — morning CT, on the named day. Super Heavy splashed down in the Gulf; Ship reached orbit, deployed Starlink Group 31-1, then splashed down in the Pacific. Literal launch-date claim delivered on time. Wikipedia — Starship flight 14 (fetched Sep 29 2026): liftoff 12:48:59 UTC / 7:48:59 CDT Sep 28 ↗
Today · Nov 15, 2026
Verdict on the claim: Delivered · Late · 6 days late. 2 statements, goalpost moved 0×.
Elon Musk first made this promise on Sep 29, 2026, with a deadline of Dec 31, 2027. He has said it 2 times on the record. None of them moved the date. The latest target is Dec 31, 2027. It has not happened yet.
Restated · due Dec 31, 2027 “We expect Starship to fly weekly at some point in the first half of next year and then second half of next year twice weekly or maybe even more frequently than that by the end of next year.” · SpaceX Q3 2026 earnings call, Elon Musk remarks, Oct 20 2026 5:42 ↗ Pending
Today · Nov 15, 2026
Verdict on the claim: Pending · 411 days left. 2 statements, goalpost moved 0×.
“So we don't know the exact launch date, but probably about four weeks or so. Four to six weeks is about right. Probably launches a little bit before Thanksgiving is my guess.”
What happened: Delivered. Starship Flight 15 lifted off from Starbase on November 13, 2026 at 22:47:36 UTC (4:47 pm CST), two weeks before Thanksgiving (Nov 26). SpaceX posted 'Liftoff of Starship Flight 15'; Wikipedia and Ars Technica confirm Ship 42 reached orbit and deployed 26 Starlink V3 satellites. Fetched Nov 14 2026. Wikipedia Starship flight 15 — launched Nov 13 2026, 22:47:36 UTC ↗
“I think actually in the limit, I mean, maybe within the same, probably two or three years, the cost of a ton to orbit will be less than the cost of air freight from California to Australia.”
What happened: Pending until Nov 6, 2029. Grade published $/ton to orbit vs California–Australia air freight, not the undated sub-$100/kg line from the same talk. Baron Investment Conference 2026 transcript ↗
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How many times did Elon Musk move the Starship V3 date?
Elon Musk has moved the date 4 times for the first Starship V3 flight. He first set it for 2025; the last date he gave was Apr 2026.
Has Starship V3 flown?
Yes, but late. Elon Musk's promise of the first Starship V3 flight came true on May 22, 2026, 0.4 years late against his first deadline of 2025. Promised in Feb 2026 that Starship would fly 'next month' (March), re-affirmed in April that the V3 booster and ship would be ready 'in a few weeks.' Flight 12 — the V3 debut — slipped and launched May 22, 2026, ~2 months past the March target.
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