Pending
Pending
Terafab: AI5 small-batch 2026, volume 2027, a terawatt of compute/year
“We either build the Terafab, or we don't have the chips, and we need the chips, so we build the Terafab.”
Missed
Oil approaches $200 a barrel by 2010-2012 (missed)
Elon Musk promised Oil approaches $200 a barrel by 2010-2012 by the end of 2012. The deadline passed and it didn't happen.
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“I think we'll see it sort of approach $200 and beyond by 2010, 1112, somewhere in there”
— Elon Musk · Aug 11, 2009 · Charlie Rose (August 11, 2009), video, ~00:17:51 00:17:51 ↗
▶ WATCH HIM SAY IT @ 00:17:51 — CHARLIE ROSE (AUGUST 11, 2009), VIDEO, ~00:17:51
What actually happened
Oil never came near $200 in 2010-2012. Brent peaked at about $127 a barrel in April 2011, below the 2008 record of about $147. Wikipedia: Price of oil ↗
The Progression
Aug 11, 2009
The promise: “I think we'll see it sort of approach $200 and beyond by 2010, 1112, somewhere in there” · Charlie Rose (August 11, 2009), video, ~00:17:51 00:17:51 ↗
Dec 31, 2012
Deadline passed. Oil never came near $200 in 2010-2012. Brent peaked at about $127 a barrel in April 2011, below the 2008 record of about $147. Wikipedia: Price of oil ↗
Today · Oct 12, 2026
Status: Missed · 5,033 days past due. Never happened.
In an August 2009 Charlie Rose interview Elon Musk said oil would approach $200 a barrel and beyond by 2010-2012. Brent peaked near $127 in 2011.
Receipts
LAST CHECKED 2026-10-12- [VIDEO] Charlie Rose (August 11, 2009), video, ~00:17:51 @ 00:17:51
- [TRANSCRIPT] Charlie Rose (August 11, 2009) — Elon Musk Archive transcript @ 00:17:51
General’s record
Delivered
1
14% of resolved claims delivered.
Missed
6
Deadline passed, still no-show.
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