AI illustration: SpaceX valuation exceeds $100 trillion within 10 years
Pending

SpaceX valuation: Elon says $100T in under 10 years

Elon Musk promised SpaceX valuation exceeding $100 trillion within 10 years by Oct 14, 2036. It hasn't happened yet, with 3,645 days left.

Get an email when this verdict changes. The Daily Verdict covers every change on the board, this one included, and only goes out on days something happens.
“Unless there is a major world war, SpaceX probably gets to >$100T in <10 years”
— Elon Musk · Oct 14, 2026 · @elonmusk on X, Oct 14 2026 ↗
See his original post on XLoads Elon's actual tweet, right here.
Show ▾
What actually happened

Pending until October 14, 2036 (under 10 years from the claim). The @SPCX100T post citing Ron Baron $20–50T / 10 years that Musk replied to ↗

The Progression

Oct 14, 2026
The promise: “Unless there is a major world war, SpaceX probably gets to >$100T in <10 years” · @elonmusk on X, Oct 14 2026 ↗
Today · Oct 22, 2026
Status: Pending · 3,645 days left. Still waiting.

In October 2026, Elon Musk wrote that unless there is a major world war, SpaceX probably gets to more than $100 trillion in under 10 years — a dated valuation claim with a war caveat. The deadline has not yet passed.

Win the argument. Share the receipt.
The post comes pre-loaded with his quote, the clock, and the share card — one tap and it's settled.

Receipts

LAST CHECKED 2026-10-14

Questions about Spacex Valuation

What did Elon Musk promise about Spacex Valuation?

On Oct 14, 2026, Elon Musk said: “Unless there is a major world war, SpaceX probably gets to >$100T in <10 years” (source).

Did it happen?

Pending until October 14, 2036 (under 10 years from the claim). (The @SPCX100T post citing Ron Baron $20–50T / 10 years that Musk replied to)

SpaceX’s record

Delivered
32
64% of resolved claims delivered.
Missed
18
Deadline passed, still no-show.
Still open
43
On the clock now. All 93 SpaceX claims →

Read next

Also SpaceX, resolves soonest
Also SpaceX, resolves soonest
Also SpaceX, resolves soonest
Pending

SpaceX catches the Ship with the tower on the next Starship flight

“Unless we discover problems after mission data review, SpaceX will attempt to catch the ship with the tower…”
goalposts: 2024 → 2025 → 2026-08 (next flight / Flight 14) → 2026-11 (a few months) → 2026-09-15 All-In: Flight 14 confirmation; Flight 15 first ship-catch attempt (~50–60% odds) → Nov 2026 · moved 5×
called JUL 202639 days left

Discussion

Loading…
← China will be making a lot of RAM in 2028 Memory chip shortage lasts through 2027, may ease in 2028 →
/// The Daily Verdict
Know the moment a prediction lands — or doesn't.
One email a day, only when something changes: a new promise, a blown deadline, a goalpost move, or a rare on-time delivery. No spam, instant unsubscribe.