Overdue
Overdue
SpaceX AI revenue tops all its other revenue in September 2026
“The wild thing is that probably our AI revenue, not probably, definitely our AI revenue will exceed all oth…”
Missed
A Falcon booster reflown within 24 hours by 2018 (missed)
Elon Musk promised A Falcon booster reflown within 24 hours by 2018 by the end of 2018. The deadline passed and it didn't happen.
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“probably by next year, where the. Falconic boost can be reblown within 24 hours”
— Elon Musk · Jul 19, 2017 · ISS R&D Conference (July 19, 2017), video, ~00:01:19 00:01:19 ↗
▶ WATCH HIM SAY IT @ 00:01:19 — ISS R&D CONFERENCE (JULY 19, 2017), VIDEO, ~00:01:19
What actually happened
No Falcon booster has flown twice within 24 hours. The record turnaround, set by B1088 between March 12 and March 21, 2025 (NROL-57), is 9 days 3 hours; the prior record was B1080 at ~13.5 days. Spaceflight Now: Falcon 9 booster turnaround record (9 days, March 2025) ↗
The Progression
Jul 19, 2017
The promise: “probably by next year, where the. Falconic boost can be reblown within 24 hours” · ISS R&D Conference (July 19, 2017), video, ~00:01:19 00:01:19 ↗
Dec 31, 2018
Deadline passed. No Falcon booster has flown twice within 24 hours. The record turnaround, set by B1088 between March 12 and March 21, 2025 (NROL-57), is 9 days 3 hours; the prior record was B1080 at ~13.5 days. Spaceflight Now: Falcon 9 booster turnaround record (9 days, March 2025) ↗
Today · Oct 12, 2026
Status: Missed · 2,842 days past due. Never happened.
At the ISS R&D conference in July 2017 Elon Musk said a Falcon booster could probably be reflown within 24 hours by 2018. That has not happened yet.
Receipts
LAST CHECKED 2026-10-12- [VIDEO] ISS R&D Conference (July 19, 2017), video, ~00:01:19 @ 00:01:19
- [TRANSCRIPT] ISS R&D Conference (July 19, 2017) — Elon Musk Archive transcript @ 00:01:19
SpaceX’s record
Delivered
31
38% of resolved claims delivered.
Missed
50
Deadline passed, still no-show.
More Starship and SpaceX rocket predictions
- Starship Flight 15 datePending
- Starship orbital refueling: demo promised by end of 2026Pending
- How many Starships in 2026? Elon says ~10 morePending
- Starship ship catch by the tower: moved 2 times so farPending
- SpaceX demonstrates full Starship reusability in 2026 (stillPending
- Starship reflight: first reused ship by Mar 31, 2027?Pending
- Starships landing on the Moon within about three years (byPending
- Starship daily flights: once a day by Aug 4, 2027?Pending
- Starship landing and reuse: promised 2023, moved 3 timesPending
- When will Starship carry humans? Elon says by end of 2027Pending
- Starship rapid reusability: full reflight by end of 2027?Pending
- Starship reaches a weekly or twice-weekly launch cadence inPending
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Pending
Pending
Starship Flight 15 launches a little before Thanksgiving 2026
“So we don't know the exact launch date, but probably about four weeks or so. Four to six weeks is about rig…”
Also SpaceX, resolves soonest
Pending
Pending
SpaceX Fable/GPT-6-level model in 2–3 months
“I am cautiously optimistic that SpaceX will have a Fable/GPT-6 level model in 2 to 3 months”
← Crew Dragon flies astronauts in summer 2019
Neuralink implanted in a person within a year (said May 2020) →
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