Overdue
Overdue
SpaceX AI revenue tops all its other revenue in September 2026
“The wild thing is that probably our AI revenue, not probably, definitely our AI revenue will exceed all oth…”
Missed
Starship reaches orbit in 2023 (missed)
Elon Musk promised Starship reaches orbit in 2023 by the end of 2023. The deadline passed and it didn't happen.
Starlink via our referral: you get a $100 credit after 2 months subscribed (US, Oct 2026 terms). Order in the tab that opens.Get Starlink →
Get an email when this verdict changes. The Daily Verdict covers every change on the board, this one included, and only goes out on days something happens.
“I would be surprised if we exit this year without getting to orbit”
— Elon Musk · Apr 29, 2023 · X Spaces: Starship flight-test debrief for subscribers (April 29, 2023), video, ~00:31:51 00:31:51 ↗
▶ WATCH HIM SAY IT @ 00:31:51 — X SPACES: STARSHIP FLIGHT-TEST DEBRIEF FOR SUBSCRIBERS (APRIL 29, 2023), VIDEO, ~00:31:51
What actually happened
Starship flew twice in 2023 (April 20 and November 18). Neither reached orbit. Wikipedia: List of Starship launches ↗
The Progression
Apr 29, 2023
The promise: “I would be surprised if we exit this year without getting to orbit” · X Spaces: Starship flight-test debrief for subscribers (April 29, 2023), video, ~00:31:51 00:31:51 ↗
Dec 31, 2023
Deadline passed. Starship flew twice in 2023 (April 20 and November 18). Neither reached orbit. Wikipedia: List of Starship launches ↗
Today · Oct 12, 2026
Status: Missed · 1,016 days past due. Never happened.
In an April 2023 X Spaces debrief after Starship's first flight Elon Musk said he would be surprised if 2023 ended without Starship reaching orbit. It did.
Receipts
LAST CHECKED 2026-10-12- [VIDEO] X Spaces: Starship flight-test debrief for subscribers (April 29, 2023), video, ~00:31:51 @ 00:31:51
- [TRANSCRIPT] X Spaces: Starship flight-test debrief for subscribers (April 29, 2023) — Elon Musk Archive transcript @ 00:31:51
SpaceX’s record
Delivered
31
38% of resolved claims delivered.
Missed
50
Deadline passed, still no-show.
More Starship and SpaceX rocket predictions
- Starship Flight 15 datePending
- Starship orbital refueling: demo promised by end of 2026Pending
- How many Starships in 2026? Elon says ~10 morePending
- Starship ship catch by the tower: moved 2 times so farPending
- SpaceX demonstrates full Starship reusability in 2026 (stillPending
- Starship reflight: first reused ship by Mar 31, 2027?Pending
- Starships landing on the Moon within about three years (byPending
- Starship daily flights: once a day by Aug 4, 2027?Pending
- Starship landing and reuse: promised 2023, moved 3 timesPending
- When will Starship carry humans? Elon says by end of 2027Pending
- Starship rapid reusability: full reflight by end of 2027?Pending
- Starship reaches a weekly or twice-weekly launch cadence inPending
Read next
Also SpaceX, resolves soonest
OverdueAlso SpaceX, resolves soonest
Pending
Pending
Starship Flight 15 launches a little before Thanksgiving 2026
“So we don't know the exact launch date, but probably about four weeks or so. Four to six weeks is about rig…”
Also SpaceX, resolves soonest
Pending
Pending
SpaceX Fable/GPT-6-level model in 2–3 months
“I am cautiously optimistic that SpaceX will have a Fable/GPT-6 level model in 2 to 3 months”
/// The Daily Verdict
Know the moment a prediction lands — or doesn't.
One email a day, only when something changes: a new promise, a blown deadline, a goalpost move, or a rare on-time delivery. No spam, instant unsubscribe.
Discussion