Overdue
Overdue
SpaceX AI revenue tops all its other revenue in September 2026
“The wild thing is that probably our AI revenue, not probably, definitely our AI revenue will exceed all oth…”
Elon Musk promised Starship short hop flights in the first half of 2019 by Jun 30, 2019. It only partly happened.
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“And I think we'll be able to do short flights, short sort of up and down flights probably sometime in the first half of next year.”
— Elon Musk · Mar 11, 2018 · SXSW (March 11, 2018), video, ~00:06:14 00:06:14 ↗
▶ WATCH HIM SAY IT @ 00:06:14 — SXSW (MARCH 11, 2018), VIDEO, ~00:06:14
What actually happened
Starhopper made tethered hops of a few centimetres in early April 2019, but its first free hop (about 20 m) came on Jul 25 2019, after the first-half deadline. Wikipedia: Starhopper ↗
The Progression
Mar 11, 2018
The promise: “And I think we'll be able to do short flights, short sort of up and down flights probably sometime in the first half of next year.” · SXSW (March 11, 2018), video, ~00:06:14 00:06:14 ↗
Jul 25, 2019
Partial — 25 days late. Starhopper made tethered hops of a few centimetres in early April 2019, but its first free hop (about 20 m) came on Jul 25 2019, after the first-half deadline. Wikipedia: Starhopper ↗
Today · Oct 12, 2026
Status: Partial · 25 days late. Sort of happened.
At SXSW in March 2018 Elon Musk said the first ship would do short up-and-down flights probably sometime in the first half of 2019. Only tethered tests happened by June; the first free hop was in July.
Receipts
LAST CHECKED 2026-10-12- [VIDEO] SXSW (March 11, 2018), video, ~00:06:14 @ 00:06:14
- [TRANSCRIPT] SXSW, March 11, 2018 — Elon Musk Archive transcript @ 00:06:14
SpaceX’s record
Delivered
31
38% of resolved claims delivered.
Missed
50
Deadline passed, still no-show.
More Starship and SpaceX rocket predictions
- Starship Flight 15 datePending
- Starship orbital refueling: demo promised by end of 2026Pending
- How many Starships in 2026? Elon says ~10 morePending
- Starship ship catch by the tower: moved 2 times so farPending
- SpaceX demonstrates full Starship reusability in 2026 (stillPending
- Starship reflight: first reused ship by Mar 31, 2027?Pending
- Starships landing on the Moon within about three years (byPending
- Starship daily flights: once a day by Aug 4, 2027?Pending
- Starship landing and reuse: promised 2023, moved 3 timesPending
- When will Starship carry humans? Elon says by end of 2027Pending
- Starship rapid reusability: full reflight by end of 2027?Pending
- Starship reaches a weekly or twice-weekly launch cadence inPending
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