Pending
Pending
20 million cars per year by 2030
“We do see Tesla reaching 20M vehicles/year probably before 2030, but that requires consistently excellent e…”
When will the $25,000 Tesla come out?
On September 22, 2020, Elon Musk first promised a $25,000 Tesla for Sep 2023, then moved the date 1 time. The deadline passed and it didn't happen. Verdict as of October 26, 2026: missed. twoweeks.lol tracks 1 Musk claim about a cheaper Tesla (2 statements): 1 missed or cancelled.
goalposts: Sep 2023 → 2025 · moved 1×
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“About 3 years from now, we're confident we can make a very compelling $25,000 electric vehicle that's also fully autonomous.”
— Elon Musk · Sep 22, 2020 · Tesla Battery Day, Sept 22 2020 (official Tesla YouTube channel, verified via YouTube oEmbed) 1:31:01 ↗
▶ WATCH HIM SAY IT @ 1:31:01 — TESLA BATTERY DAY, SEPT 22 2020 (OFFICIAL TESLA YOUTUBE CHANNEL, VERIFIED VIA YOUTUBE OEMBED)
What actually happened
No all-new low-cost Tesla platform began production in 2025. Tesla instead launched cheaper 'Standard' trims of the Model Y and Model 3 in October 2025 on existing lines. Cybercab, the next-gen platform's first product, began production at Giga Texas in 2026. TechCrunch, Oct 7 2025: Tesla reveals cheaper Standard Model 3 and Model Y ↗
The Progression
2 STATEMENTS · ONE CLAIMAt Battery Day in September 2020 Musk said that in about three years Tesla could make "a very compelling $25,000 electric vehicle" that would also be fully autonomous. In January 2024 he said the schedule put a next-generation low-cost car into production at Giga Texas in the second half of 2025.
Neither happened. No all-new low-cost Tesla went into production in 2025. In October 2025 Tesla launched cheaper Standard trims of the Model 3 and Model Y on its existing lines. The first product on the next-generation platform is the Cybercab, which started production in 2026.
Elon Musk first made this promise on Sep 22, 2020, with a deadline of Sep 22, 2023. He has said it 2 times on the record. 1 of those statements pushed the date later. The last deadline, Dec 31, 2025, passed without it.
Sep 22, 2020
First promise · due Sep 22, 2023
“About 3 years from now, we're confident we can make a very compelling $25,000 electric vehicle that's also fully autonomous.” · Tesla Battery Day, Sept 22 2020 (official Tesla YouTube channel, verified via YouTube oEmbed) 1:31:01 ↗
Missed · 1,130 days past due
“About 3 years from now, we're confident we can make a very compelling $25,000 electric vehicle that's also fully autonomous.” · Tesla Battery Day, Sept 22 2020 (official Tesla YouTube channel, verified via YouTube oEmbed) 1:31:01 ↗
Missed · 1,130 days past due
Jan 24, 2024
Goalpost moved · due Dec 31, 2025
“But our current schedule says that we will start production towards the end of 2025, so sometime in the second half. That's just what our current schedule says.” · Tesla Q4 2023 earnings call, Jan 24 2024 (answering whether next-gen compact vehicles could come in 2025) ↗
Missed · 299 days past due
“But our current schedule says that we will start production towards the end of 2025, so sometime in the second half. That's just what our current schedule says.” · Tesla Q4 2023 earnings call, Jan 24 2024 (answering whether next-gen compact vehicles could come in 2025) ↗
Missed · 299 days past due
Dec 31, 2025
Missed. No all-new low-cost Tesla platform began production in 2025. Tesla instead launched cheaper 'Standard' trims of the Model Y and Model 3 in October 2025 on existing lines. Cybercab, the next-gen platform's first product, began production at Giga Texas in 2026. TechCrunch, Oct 7 2025: Tesla reveals cheaper Standard Model 3 and Model Y ↗
Today · Oct 26, 2026
Verdict on the claim: Missed · 299 days past due. 2 statements, goalpost moved 1×.
The $25,000 Tesla 'about 3 years from now' promise at Battery Day on September 22, 2020 was the headline of the event, premised on halving battery cost per kWh with the new 4680 cells. Three years later no such car existed; in April 2024 Reuters reported the low-cost 'Model 2' was scrapped for the Cybercab, and the eventual budget options were de-contented Model 3/Y trims at $37,000+. This was Musk's second $25k-car promise after the 2016 version.
Every statement, dated
2 STATEMENTS · AS OF OCTOBER 26, 2026| Date said | What he said | Deadline given | Source | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| “About 3 years from now, we're confident we can make a very compelling $25,000 electric vehicle that's also fully autonomous.” | Sep 22, 2023 | Tesla Battery Day, Sept 22 2020… | Missed · 1,130 days past due | |
| “But our current schedule says that we will start production towards the end of 2025, so sometime in the second half. That's just what our current…” | end of 2025 | Tesla Q4 2023 earnings call… | Missed · 299 days past due |
Receipts
LAST CHECKED 2026-08-01- [VIDEO] Tesla Battery Day, Sept 22 2020 (official Tesla YouTube channel, verified via YouTube oEmbed) @ 1:31:01
- [REPORT] CNBC, Sept 22 2020 — quotes the $25,000 line verbatim
Questions and answers
How many times has Elon Musk moved the date for a $25,000 Tesla?
Elon Musk has moved the date 1 time for a $25,000 Tesla. He first set it for Sep 2023; the last date he gave was 2025.
Has Tesla released a $25,000 car?
No. Elon Musk's promise of a $25,000 Tesla did not come true; the deadline of 2025 passed without it. No all-new low-cost Tesla platform began production in 2025. Tesla instead launched cheaper 'Standard' trims of the Model Y and Model 3 in October 2025 on existing lines. Cybercab, the next-gen platform's first product, began production at Giga Texas in 2026. (TechCrunch, Oct 7 2025: Tesla reveals cheaper Standard Model 3 and Model Y)
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Tesla’s record
Delivered
85
62% of resolved claims delivered.
Missed
52
Deadline passed, still no-show.
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