Pending20 million cars per year by 2030
“We do see Tesla reaching 20M vehicles/year probably before 2030, but that requires consistently excellent e…”
“About 3 years from now, we're confident we can make a very compelling $25,000 electric vehicle that's also fully autonomous.”
— Elon Musk · Sep 22, 2020 · Tesla Battery Day, Sept 22 2020 (official Tesla YouTube channel, verified via YouTube oEmbed) 1:31:01 ↗
▶ WATCH HIM SAY IT @ 1:31:01 — TESLA BATTERY DAY, SEPT 22 2020 (OFFICIAL TESLA YOUTUBE CHANNEL, VERIFIED VIA YOUTUBE OEMBED)
What actually happened
At Battery Day (Sep 22, 2020) Musk promised 'a very compelling $25,000 electric vehicle that's also fully autonomous' about three years out — pointing to late 2023. Nothing arrived by then. Musk's Oct 2024 remark that a regular $25k model would be 'pointless... silly' renounced only the steering-wheel version — on the same call he affirmed the autonomous one, saying the Cybercab 'will cost roughly $25K.' That goal is demonstrably alive: the first production Cybercab was built at Giga Texas in Feb 2026, Musk confirmed a consumer version at $30k or less before 2027, and production Cybercabs without steering wheels began public-road testing in Austin on June 30, 2026. The promised $25k autonomous EV still hasn't shipped: missed, clock ticking. Teslarati — Musk confirms Cybercab ~$25–30k pricing and timeline ↗
The Progression
Sep 22, 2020
The promise: “About 3 years from now, we're confident we can make a very compelling $25,000 electric vehicle that's also fully autonomous.” · Tesla Battery Day, Sept 22 2020 (official Tesla YouTube channel, verified via YouTube oEmbed) 1:31:01 ↗
Sep 22, 2023
Deadline passed. At Battery Day (Sep 22, 2020) Musk promised 'a very compelling $25,000 electric vehicle that's also fully autonomous' about three years out — pointing to late 2023. Nothing arrived by then. Musk's Oct 2024 remark that a regular $25k model would be 'pointless... silly' renounced only the steering-wheel version — on the same call he affirmed the autonomous one, saying the Cybercab 'will cost roughly $25K.' That goal is demonstrably alive: the first production Cybercab was built at Giga Texas in Feb 2026, Musk confirmed a consumer version at $30k or less before 2027, and production Cybercabs without steering wheels began public-road testing in Austin on June 30, 2026. The promised $25k autonomous EV still hasn't shipped: missed, clock ticking. Teslarati — Musk confirms Cybercab ~$25–30k pricing and timeline ↗
Today · Sep 11, 2026
Status: Missed · 1,085 days past due. Never happened.
The $25,000 Tesla 'about 3 years from now' promise at Battery Day on September 22, 2020 was the headline of the event, premised on halving battery cost per kWh with the new 4680 cells. Three years later no such car existed; in April 2024 Reuters reported the low-cost 'Model 2' was scrapped for the Cybercab, and the eventual budget options were de-contented Model 3/Y trims at $37,000+. This was Musk's second $25k-car promise after the 2016 version.
Receipts
LAST CHECKED 2026-08-01- [VIDEO] Tesla Battery Day, Sept 22 2020 (official Tesla YouTube channel, verified via YouTube oEmbed) @ 1:31:01
- [REPORT] CNBC, Sept 22 2020 — quotes the $25,000 line verbatim
Tesla’s record
Delivered
47
59% of resolved claims delivered.
Missed
32
Deadline passed, still no-show.
Read next
Same source event
PendingSame source event
Partial4680 pilot plant at 10 GWh/year within a year (Battery Day)
“It will take about a year to reach the 10 gigawatt hour capacity.”
Also Tesla, resolves soonest
PendingTalk to Grok in FSD within ~3 months
“This functionality will be there in about 3 months or so.”
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