AI illustration: Well over a billion humanoid robots within 10 years
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Pending

A billion humanoid robots in 10 years? Elon says yes

Elon Musk predicted well over a billion humanoid robots by Sep 1, 2036. It hasn't happened yet, with 3,602 days left.

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“If you say like 10 years from now, I would say there are well over a billion humanoid robots.”
— Elon Musk · Sep 1, 2026 · ANI News livestream — Elon Musk at G20 Innovation Ministerial, Chapel Hill (Sep 1 2026) 00:09:22 ↗
Video: ANI News livestream — Elon Musk at G20 Innovation Ministerial, Chapel Hill (Sep 1 2026)
▶ WATCH HIM SAY IT @ 00:09:22 — ANI NEWS LIVESTREAM — ELON MUSK AT G20 INNOVATION MINISTERIAL, CHAPEL HILL (SEP 1 2026)
What actually happened

Fetched Oct 17 2026: Wikipedia's Optimus page still has Generation 3 unrevealed (as of September 2026). Tesla has published no fleet anywhere near a billion humanoid robots. Deadline 2036-09-01. Status stays pending. Wikipedia — Optimus (robot), fetched Oct 17 2026: Gen 3 unrevealed; nowhere near a billion units ↗

The Progression

Sep 1, 2026
The promise: “If you say like 10 years from now, I would say there are well over a billion humanoid robots.” · ANI News livestream — Elon Musk at G20 Innovation Ministerial, Chapel Hill (Sep 1 2026) 00:09:22 ↗
Today · Oct 22, 2026
Status: Pending · 3,602 days left. Still waiting.

On September 1 2026 at the G20 Innovation Ministerial in Chapel Hill, Elon Musk said that 10 years from now there would be well over a billion humanoid robots, and that he would put serious money on at least a billion robots in 10 years each producing at least five times the output of a human — more productive than all humans combined.

How many humanoid robots the world will have

2 MORE CLAIMS ON THIS PAGE
Pending1,670 days left

At least 100 million humanoid robots within 5 years

“That there will be in 5 years, let's say at least 100 million humanoid robots, but maybe a billion.”
Elon Musk · said May 19, 2026 · due May 19, 2031 · Forbes — Elon Musk On The Next Five Years Of AI And Robots, May 19 2026 ↗ · #253

What happened: Fetched Oct 21 2026: Electrek Sep 25 reports Tesla ramped Optimus to several hundred/week in August, targeting 1,000/week by year-end — still internal test/training units, not a global installed base of 100 million humanoid robots. Deadline 2031-05-19. Status stays pending. Electrek Sep 25 2026 (fetched Oct 21) — Optimus hundreds/week internal; nowhere near 100 million global units ↗

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LAST CHECKED 2026-10-17

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Tesla’s record

Delivered
85
61% of resolved claims delivered.
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Deadline passed, still no-show.
Still open
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