PendingTerafab: AI5 small-batch 2026, volume 2027, a terawatt of compute/year
“We either build the Terafab, or we don't have the chips, and we need the chips, so we build the Terafab.”
Pending
Global economy doubles in 5–7 years
“I would predict that the economy is probably twice its current size in 5, maybe 6 years.”
— Elon Musk · May 19, 2026 · Forbes — Elon Musk On The Next Five Years Of AI And Robots, May 19 2026 0:25 ↗
▶ WATCH HIM SAY IT @ 0:25 — FORBES — ELON MUSK ON THE NEXT FIVE YEARS OF AI AND ROBOTS, MAY 19 2026
The fine print
Same Forbes Innovator 250 clip as #253 (YouTube oEmbed verified; posted May 19 2026). After the 100-million-robot line he said the economy would probably be twice its current size in 5, maybe 6 years, then hedged to '5 to 7 years' because of a coming doubling period in economic output. L10 takes the latest/most generous end of that range: 7 years from May 19 2026 → 2033-05-19. Distinct from #241 ('Money won't matter by 2036') from the Jul 23 Economist interview — that is a claim about money becoming irrelevant, not about GDP doubling. Viral recirculation Aug 23 2026 does not change date_made.
The Progression
May 19, 2026
The promise: “I would predict that the economy is probably twice its current size in 5, maybe 6 years.” · Forbes — Elon Musk On The Next Five Years Of AI And Robots, May 19 2026 0:25 ↗
Today · Aug 29, 2026
Status: Pending · 2,455 days left. Still waiting.
At a Forbes Innovator 250 event in May 2026, Elon Musk predicted the economy would probably be twice its then-current size in five, maybe six years, and hedged the doubling window out to five to seven years. That is a dated claim about global economic output, not a restatement of his separate 'money won't matter' line. The generous end of the range is May 2033.
Receipts
LAST CHECKED 2026-08-29General’s record
Delivered
0
0% of resolved claims delivered.
Missed
2
Deadline passed, still no-show.
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“In 3 years or less, my guess is goods and services growth will exceed money supply growth in about 3 years.…”
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PendingUS double-digit growth in 12-18 months, triple-digit in ~5 years
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