AI illustration: Falcon 1 first launch from Vandenberg around March 2004
SpaceXSpace
Missed

Falcon 1 first launch from Vandenberg around March 2004

Elon Musk promised Falcon 1 first launch from Vandenberg around March 2004 by Mar 31, 2004. The deadline passed and it didn't happen.

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“Our first launch will be from the SpaceX launch complex at Vandenberg Air Force Base in approximately March of next year, basically early next year.”
— Elon Musk · Oct 8, 2003 · Stanford Entrepreneurial Thought Leaders Lecture (October 8, 2003), video, ~00:23:03 00:23:03 ↗
Video: Stanford Entrepreneurial Thought Leaders Lecture (October 8, 2003), video, ~00:23:03
▶ WATCH HIM SAY IT @ 00:23:03 — STANFORD ENTREPRENEURIAL THOUGHT LEADERS LECTURE (OCTOBER 8, 2003), VIDEO, ~00:23:03
What actually happened

Falcon 1 never launched from Vandenberg. Its first launch came on Mar 24 2006 from Omelek Island in Kwajalein Atoll, two years late, and failed about 30 seconds after liftoff. Wikipedia: Falcon 1 launch history ↗

The Progression

Oct 8, 2003
The promise: “Our first launch will be from the SpaceX launch complex at Vandenberg Air Force Base in approximately March of next year, basically early next year.” · Stanford Entrepreneurial Thought Leaders Lecture (October 8, 2003), video, ~00:23:03 00:23:03 ↗
Mar 31, 2004
Deadline passed. Falcon 1 never launched from Vandenberg. Its first launch came on Mar 24 2006 from Omelek Island in Kwajalein Atoll, two years late, and failed about 30 seconds after liftoff. Wikipedia: Falcon 1 launch history ↗
Today · Oct 12, 2026
Status: Missed · 8,230 days past due. Never happened.

At Stanford in October 2003 Elon Musk said SpaceX's first Falcon 1 launch would fly from Vandenberg Air Force Base in about March 2004. It flew two years later, from Kwajalein, and failed.

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LAST CHECKED 2026-10-12

SpaceX’s record

Delivered
31
38% of resolved claims delivered.
Missed
50
Deadline passed, still no-show.
Still open
43
On the clock now. All 124 SpaceX claims →

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