Pending

SpaceX reaches ~$3.5 trillion annual revenue around 2033

“My best guess for ~$3.5T revenue is roughly around 2033 fwiw”
— Elon Musk · Aug 27, 2026 · @elonmusk on X, Aug 27 2026 ↗
See his original post on XLoads Elon's actual tweet, right here.
Show ▾
The fine print

Said Aug 27 2026 (oEmbed-verified @elonmusk, html dated August 27 2026) in reply to Aaron Burnett, who was comparing Morgan Stanley's $3.5T SpaceX-revenue-in-2040 model to SpaceX's own faster targets. Musk pulled that $3.5T figure forward from 2040 to 'roughly around 2033.' Distinct from #197 (~$1T annual revenue in 2030) and quarantined #245 (same $1T restatement): this is a later, larger milestone, not a goalpost move on the $1T card. Context of the thread is SpaceX (Morgan Stanley on SpaceX / Starbase Louisiana / Starship cadence). L10: 'roughly around 2033' → end of 2033. Verified quote is his; the $3.5T number originated in the Morgan Stanley model he was answering.

The Progression

Aug 27, 2026
The promise: “My best guess for ~$3.5T revenue is roughly around 2033 fwiw” · @elonmusk on X, Aug 27 2026 ↗
Today · Aug 27, 2026
Status: Pending · 2,683 days left. Still waiting.

On August 27 2026 Elon Musk said his best guess for about $3.5 trillion of SpaceX revenue was roughly around 2033. He was answering a thread about Morgan Stanley's model, which had put that same $3.5 trillion in 2040. The new date sits three years after his existing ~$1 trillion-in-2030 target and seven years ahead of the analyst case he was responding to.

Win the argument. Share the receipt.
The post comes pre-loaded with his quote, the clock, and the share card — one tap and it's settled.
Post the receipt

Receipts

LAST CHECKED 2026-08-27

SpaceX’s record

Delivered
9
50% of resolved claims delivered.
Missed
9
Deadline passed, still no-show.
Still open
29
On the clock now. All 47 SpaceX claims →

Read next

Also SpaceX, resolves soonest
Also SpaceX, resolves soonest
Also SpaceX, resolves soonest

Discussion

Loading…
← Starbase Louisiana: 12+ launch towers, 30+ Starship flights a day
/// The Daily Verdict
Know the moment a prediction lands — or doesn't.
One email a day, only when something changes: a new promise, a blown deadline, a goalpost move, or a rare on-time delivery. No spam, instant unsubscribe.