Missed
SpaceX approaches one launch every seven days by mid-2019
“probably mid-2019. We'll be approaching a cadence of one launch every seven days”
Elon Musk promised SpaceX does about 30 launches in 2018 by the end of 2018. The deadline passed and it didn't happen.
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“And then next year we'll be doing probably 30 launches.”
— Elon Musk · Sep 8, 2017 · SpaceX All-Hands Company Talk with Elon Musk (2017), September 8, 2017 — Elon Musk Archive transcript 00:45:57 ↗
What actually happened
SpaceX flew 21 times in 2018 (20 Falcon 9 plus the Falcon Heavy debut). Wikipedia: 2018 in spaceflight (21 SpaceX launches) ↗
The Progression
Sep 8, 2017
The promise: “And then next year we'll be doing probably 30 launches.” · SpaceX All-Hands Company Talk with Elon Musk (2017), September 8, 2017 — Elon Musk Archive transcript 00:45:57 ↗
Dec 31, 2018
Deadline passed. SpaceX flew 21 times in 2018 (20 Falcon 9 plus the Falcon Heavy debut). Wikipedia: 2018 in spaceflight (21 SpaceX launches) ↗
Today · Oct 12, 2026
Status: Missed · 2,842 days past due. Never happened.
In SpaceX's 2017 company update Elon Musk said the company would probably do about 30 launches in 2018. It did 21.
Receipts
LAST CHECKED 2026-10-12- [TRANSCRIPT] SpaceX All-Hands Company Talk with Elon Musk (2017), September 8, 2017 — Elon Musk Archive transcript @ 00:45:57
SpaceX’s record
Delivered
31
38% of resolved claims delivered.
Missed
50
Deadline passed, still no-show.
More SpaceX business predictions
- SpaceX share of launches: >95% of Earth's payload in 2026?Pending
- SpaceX revenue: bigger than NASA's budget by end of 2026?Pending
- SpaceX revenue 2026: Elon says $100B+ run rate by DecemberPending
- SpaceX revenue 2030: Elon says ~$1 trillion a yearPending
- SpaceX revenue projection: ~$3.5 trillion by ~2033Pending
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