Missed
Five or six more Starship flights in 2024
“we're hoping to do at least another maybe five or six flights this year”
Missed
Starship full reusability of booster and ship by 2025 (missed)
Elon Musk promised Starship full reusability of booster and ship by 2025 by the end of 2025. The deadline passed and it didn't happen.
Starlink via our referral: you get a $100 credit after 2 months subscribed (US, Oct 2026 terms). Order in the tab that opens.Get Starlink →
Get an email when this verdict changes. The Daily Verdict covers every change on the board, this one included, and only goes out on days something happens.
“I think it's a very high probability of achieving full reusability next year”
— Elon Musk · Mar 25, 2024 · Abundance360 Summit (March 25, 2024), video, ~00:26:41 00:26:41 ↗
▶ WATCH HIM SAY IT @ 00:26:41 — ABUNDANCE360 SUMMIT (MARCH 25, 2024), VIDEO, ~00:26:41
What actually happened
Super Heavy boosters were caught and one was reflown in 2025, but no Starship upper stage was recovered or reflown in 2025, so the system was not fully reusable. Wikipedia: List of Starship launches ↗
The Progression
Mar 25, 2024
The promise: “I think it's a very high probability of achieving full reusability next year” · Abundance360 Summit (March 25, 2024), video, ~00:26:41 00:26:41 ↗
Dec 31, 2025
Deadline passed. Super Heavy boosters were caught and one was reflown in 2025, but no Starship upper stage was recovered or reflown in 2025, so the system was not fully reusable. Wikipedia: List of Starship launches ↗
Today · Oct 12, 2026
Status: Missed · 285 days past due. Never happened.
In March 2024 Elon Musk said Starship had a decent shot at full reusability of both stages that year and a very high probability of it in 2025. No ship was recovered in 2025.
Receipts
LAST CHECKED 2026-10-12- [VIDEO] Abundance360 Summit (March 25, 2024), video, ~00:26:41 @ 00:26:41
- [TRANSCRIPT] Abundance360 Summit (March 25, 2024) — Elon Musk Archive transcript @ 00:26:41
SpaceX’s record
Delivered
31
38% of resolved claims delivered.
Missed
50
Deadline passed, still no-show.
More Starship and SpaceX rocket predictions
- Starship Flight 15 datePending
- Starship orbital refueling: demo promised by end of 2026Pending
- How many Starships in 2026? Elon says ~10 morePending
- Starship ship catch by the tower: moved 2 times so farPending
- SpaceX demonstrates full Starship reusability in 2026 (stillPending
- Starship reflight: first reused ship by Mar 31, 2027?Pending
- Starships landing on the Moon within about three years (byPending
- Starship daily flights: once a day by Aug 4, 2027?Pending
- Starship landing and reuse: promised 2023, moved 3 timesPending
- When will Starship carry humans? Elon says by end of 2027Pending
- Starship rapid reusability: full reflight by end of 2027?Pending
- Starship reaches a weekly or twice-weekly launch cadence inPending
Read next
Same source event
Same source event
Pending
Starships landing on the Moon within about three years (by March 2027)
“I'd be surprised if it's, if it's longer than about three years to be landing starships on the moon”
Also SpaceX, resolves soonest
Overdue
Overdue
SpaceX AI revenue tops all its other revenue in September 2026
“The wild thing is that probably our AI revenue, not probably, definitely our AI revenue will exceed all oth…”
← Five or six more Starship flights in 2024
Starships landing on the Moon within about three years (by March 2027) →
/// The Daily Verdict
Know the moment a prediction lands — or doesn't.
One email a day, only when something changes: a new promise, a blown deadline, a goalpost move, or a rare on-time delivery. No spam, instant unsubscribe.
Discussion