Overdue
Overdue
SpaceX AI revenue tops all its other revenue in September 2026
“The wild thing is that probably our AI revenue, not probably, definitely our AI revenue will exceed all oth…”
Delivered
Starship hopper flights in 2019 (delivered)
Elon Musk promised Starship hopper flights in 2019 by the end of 2019. It happened on time.
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“we still anticipate doing hopper flights next year”
— Elon Musk · Sep 17, 2018 · SpaceX BFR Lunar Mission Announcement (September 17, 2018), video, ~01:01:06 01:01:06 ↗
▶ WATCH HIM SAY IT @ 01:01:06 — SPACEX BFR LUNAR MISSION ANNOUNCEMENT (SEPTEMBER 17, 2018), VIDEO, ~01:01:06
What actually happened
Starhopper made its first untethered hop on July 25, 2019, and a 150 m hop on August 27, 2019. Wikipedia: Starhopper (hops July and August 2019) ↗
The Progression
Sep 17, 2018
The promise: “we still anticipate doing hopper flights next year” · SpaceX BFR Lunar Mission Announcement (September 17, 2018), video, ~01:01:06 01:01:06 ↗
Jul 25, 2019
Delivered — on time. Starhopper made its first untethered hop on July 25, 2019, and a 150 m hop on August 27, 2019. Wikipedia: Starhopper (hops July and August 2019) ↗
Today · Oct 12, 2026
Status: Delivered · on time. It happened.
At the September 2018 BFR lunar mission announcement Elon Musk said SpaceX would do hopper flights in 2019. Starhopper flew in July and August 2019.
Receipts
LAST CHECKED 2026-10-12- [VIDEO] SpaceX BFR Lunar Mission Announcement (September 17, 2018), video, ~01:01:06 @ 01:01:06
- [TRANSCRIPT] SpaceX BFR Lunar Mission Announcement (September 17, 2018) — Elon Musk Archive transcript @ 01:01:06
SpaceX’s record
Delivered
31
38% of resolved claims delivered.
Missed
50
Deadline passed, still no-show.
More Starship and SpaceX rocket predictions
- Starship Flight 15 datePending
- Starship orbital refueling: demo promised by end of 2026Pending
- How many Starships in 2026? Elon says ~10 morePending
- Starship ship catch by the tower: moved 2 times so farPending
- SpaceX demonstrates full Starship reusability in 2026 (stillPending
- Starship reflight: first reused ship by Mar 31, 2027?Pending
- Starships landing on the Moon within about three years (byPending
- Starship daily flights: once a day by Aug 4, 2027?Pending
- Starship landing and reuse: promised 2023, moved 3 timesPending
- When will Starship carry humans? Elon says by end of 2027Pending
- Starship rapid reusability: full reflight by end of 2027?Pending
- Starship reaches a weekly or twice-weekly launch cadence inPending
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← SpaceX approaches one launch every seven days by mid-2019
Starship ship-to-ship propellant transfer demo in 2025 →
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