Delivered
Delivered
80-90% odds the tower catches a Super Heavy booster in 2024
“But I think the odds of actually catching the booster with the tower probably like 80, 90% this year, which…”
Missed
Starship ship-to-ship propellant transfer demo in 2025
Elon Musk promised Starship ship-to-ship propellant transfer demo in 2025 by the end of 2025. The deadline passed and it didn't happen.
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“next year we're aiming to demonstrate ship to ship propellant transfer”
— Elon Musk · Apr 4, 2024 · Making Life Multiplanetary (April 4, 2024), video, ~00:00:13 00:00:13 ↗
▶ WATCH HIM SAY IT @ 00:00:13 — MAKING LIFE MULTIPLANETARY (APRIL 4, 2024), VIDEO, ~00:00:13
What actually happened
No ship-to-ship propellant transfer flew in 2025. Starship's 2025 flights were suborbital tests. Wikipedia: List of Starship launches ↗
The Progression
Apr 4, 2024
The promise: “next year we're aiming to demonstrate ship to ship propellant transfer” · Making Life Multiplanetary (April 4, 2024), video, ~00:00:13 00:00:13 ↗
Dec 31, 2025
Deadline passed. No ship-to-ship propellant transfer flew in 2025. Starship's 2025 flights were suborbital tests. Wikipedia: List of Starship launches ↗
Today · Oct 12, 2026
Status: Missed · 285 days past due. Never happened.
In the April 2024 'Making Life Multiplanetary' talk Elon Musk said SpaceX aimed to demonstrate ship-to-ship propellant transfer in 2025. It did not happen that year.
Receipts
LAST CHECKED 2026-10-12- [VIDEO] Making Life Multiplanetary (April 4, 2024), video, ~00:00:13 @ 00:00:13
- [TRANSCRIPT] Making Life Multiplanetary (April 4, 2024) — Elon Musk Archive transcript @ 00:00:13
SpaceX’s record
Delivered
31
38% of resolved claims delivered.
Missed
50
Deadline passed, still no-show.
More Starship and SpaceX rocket predictions
- Starship Flight 15 datePending
- Starship orbital refueling: demo promised by end of 2026Pending
- How many Starships in 2026? Elon says ~10 morePending
- Starship ship catch by the tower: moved 2 times so farPending
- SpaceX demonstrates full Starship reusability in 2026 (stillPending
- Starship reflight: first reused ship by Mar 31, 2027?Pending
- Starships landing on the Moon within about three years (byPending
- Starship daily flights: once a day by Aug 4, 2027?Pending
- Starship landing and reuse: promised 2023, moved 3 timesPending
- When will Starship carry humans? Elon says by end of 2027Pending
- Starship rapid reusability: full reflight by end of 2027?Pending
- Starship reaches a weekly or twice-weekly launch cadence inPending
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