Overdue
Overdue
SpaceX AI revenue tops all its other revenue in September 2026
“The wild thing is that probably our AI revenue, not probably, definitely our AI revenue will exceed all oth…”
Elon Musk promised Starship orbital launch attempt in January or February 2022 by Feb 28, 2022. The deadline passed and it didn't happen.
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“We're expecting our license approval from the FAA around the end of this year and then so that probably means a launch attempt in January or perhaps February.”
— Elon Musk · Nov 17, 2021 · NASEM Space Studies Board (November 17, 2021), video, ~00:39:43 00:39:43 ↗
▶ WATCH HIM SAY IT @ 00:39:43 — NASEM SPACE STUDIES BOARD (NOVEMBER 17, 2021), VIDEO, ~00:39:43
What actually happened
Starship's first integrated launch attempt came on Apr 20 2023, more than a year late. Wikipedia: Starship Integrated Flight Test (Apr 20 2023) ↗
The Progression
Nov 17, 2021
The promise: “We're expecting our license approval from the FAA around the end of this year and then so that probably means a launch attempt in January or perhaps February.” · NASEM Space Studies Board (November 17, 2021), video, ~00:39:43 00:39:43 ↗
Feb 28, 2022
Deadline passed. Starship's first integrated launch attempt came on Apr 20 2023, more than a year late. Wikipedia: Starship Integrated Flight Test (Apr 20 2023) ↗
Today · Oct 12, 2026
Status: Missed · 1,687 days past due. Never happened.
Briefing the National Academies in November 2021, Elon Musk said FAA approval was expected around year-end, so the first Starship orbital attempt would probably be in January or February 2022. It flew in April 2023.
Receipts
LAST CHECKED 2026-10-12- [VIDEO] NASEM Space Studies Board (November 17, 2021), video, ~00:39:43 @ 00:39:43
- [TRANSCRIPT] NASEM Space Studies Board, November 17, 2021 — Elon Musk Archive transcript @ 00:39:43
SpaceX’s record
Delivered
31
38% of resolved claims delivered.
Missed
50
Deadline passed, still no-show.
More Starship and SpaceX rocket predictions
- Starship Flight 15 datePending
- Starship orbital refueling: demo promised by end of 2026Pending
- How many Starships in 2026? Elon says ~10 morePending
- Starship ship catch by the tower: moved 2 times so farPending
- SpaceX demonstrates full Starship reusability in 2026 (stillPending
- Starship reflight: first reused ship by Mar 31, 2027?Pending
- Starships landing on the Moon within about three years (byPending
- Starship daily flights: once a day by Aug 4, 2027?Pending
- Starship landing and reuse: promised 2023, moved 3 timesPending
- When will Starship carry humans? Elon says by end of 2027Pending
- Starship rapid reusability: full reflight by end of 2027?Pending
- Starship reaches a weekly or twice-weekly launch cadence inPending
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A Starship and Super Heavy every month by end of 2022 →
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